IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp672.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Constant, Amelie F.

    (Temple University)

  • Massey, Douglas S.

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

In this paper we seek to deepen understanding of out-migration as a social and economic process and to investigate whether cross-sectional earnings assimilation results suffer from selection bias. To model the process of out-migration we conduct a detailed event history analysis of men and women immigrants in Germany. Our 14-year longitudinal study reveals that emigrants are negatively selected with respect to occupational prestige and to stable full time employment. Our results show no selectivity with respect to human capital, earnings, or gender. The likelihood of return migration is strongly determined by the range and nature of social attachments to Germany and origin countries, and grows higher toward retirement. This selective emigration, however, does not appear to distort cross-sectional estimates of earnings assimilation.

Suggested Citation

  • Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002. "Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 672, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp672.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borjas, George J. & Freeman, Richard B. (ed.), 1992. "Immigration and the Work Force," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226066332, December.
    2. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1997. "Immigrant performance in Germany: Labor earnings of ethnic German migrants and foreign guest-workers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 379-397.
    3. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Assimilation, Changes in Cohort Quality, and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 2, pages 3-29, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Per-Anders Edin & Robert J. LaLonde & Olof Aslund, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 0020, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    5. Paul W. Miller & Barry R. Chiswick, 1999. "Language skills and earnings among legalized aliens," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 63-89.
    6. Fernando Ramos, 1992. "Out-Migration and Return Migration of Puerto Ricans," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 49-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bauer, Thomas & Gang, Ira, 1998. "Temporary Migrants from Egypt: How Long Do They Stay Abroad?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2003, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 1994. "Intergenerational Educational Mobility: Effects of Family and State in Malaysia," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(4), pages 1126-1166.
    9. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Merkle, Lucie & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1992. "Savings, remittances, and return migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 77-81, January.
    11. Patricia Reagan & Randall Olsen, 2000. "You can go home again: Evidence from longitudinal data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(3), pages 339-350, August.
    12. Barry Chiswick, 1999. "Are Immigrants Favorably Self-Selected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 181-185, May.
    13. Dustmann, Christian & Frattini, Tommaso, 2011. "Immigration: The European Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 6261, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
    15. Licht, Georg & Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Assimilation, labour market experience, and earnings profiles of temporary and permanent immigrant workers in germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-06, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June.
    2. Longva, Pal, 2001. "Out-migration of immigrants : implications for assimilation analysis," Memorandum 04/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Jennifer Hook & Weiwei Zhang, 2011. "Who Stays? Who Goes? Selective Emigration Among the Foreign-Born," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Merja Kauhanen & Mari Kangasniemi, 2012. "Who leaves and who stays? Outmigration of Estonian immigrants from Finland and its impact on economic assimilation of Estonian immigrants in Finland," Working Papers 282, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    5. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    6. Amelie F. Constant, 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8053, CESifo.
    7. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Nekby, Lena, 2002. "How Long Does it Take to Integrate? Employment Convergence of Immigrants and Natives in Sweden," Working Paper Series 185, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Rashid, Saman, 2004. "Immigrant Earnings, Assimilation and Heterogeneity," Umeå Economic Studies 622, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    10. Nekby, Lena, 2002. "Employment Convergence of Immigrants and Natives in Sweden," Research Papers in Economics 2002:9, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    11. Brian Duncan & Stephen J. Trejo, 2015. "Assessing the Socioeconomic Mobility and Integration of U.S. Immigrants and Their Descendants," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 657(1), pages 108-135, January.
    12. Rashid, Saman, 2004. "Immigrants' Income and Family Migration," Umeå Economic Studies 625, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    13. Bauer, Thomas K. & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2000. "Immigration Policy, Assimilation of Immigrants and Natives' Sentiments towards Immigrants: Evidence from 12 OECD-Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 187, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants' Earnings Profiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4617, CESifo.
    15. Sebastian Gundel & Heiko Peters, "undated". "Assimilation and Cohort Effects for German Immigrants," Working Papers 200123, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    16. Jonathan A. Schwabish, 2009. "Identifying Rates of Emigration in the United States Using Administrative Earnings Records: Working Paper 2009-01," Working Papers 20516, Congressional Budget Office.
    17. Jan Saarela & Kirk Scott, 2017. "Mother Tongue, Host Country Earnings, and Return Migration: Evidence from Cross-National Administrative Records," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 542-564, June.
    18. Coniglio, Nicola & De Arcangelis, Giuseppe & Serlenga, Laura, 2006. "Intentions to Return of Undocumented Migrants: Illegality as a Cause of Skill Waste," IZA Discussion Papers 2356, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. George J. Borjas & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "The Evolution of the Mexican-Born Workforce in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Mexican Immigration to the United States, pages 13-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Rafael de Arce & Ramon Mahia, 2012. "Have Migrants Bought a "Round Trip Ticket"? Determinants in Probability of Immigrants' Return in Spain," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    event history; immigrant assimilation; return migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.