IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joimai/v22y2021i3d10.1007_s12134-020-00798-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can Migrants’ Emigration Intentions Predict Their Actual Behaviors? Evidence from a Swiss Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Wanner

    (University of Geneva)

Abstract

In this paper, we use original linked data to better understand the relationship between remigration intentions and actual behaviors and, more specifically, to verify whether remigration intentions can predict migrants’ actual behaviors. To do so, we compare self-declared remigration intentions with actual departures during the 2 years following a survey. Then, we analyze to what extent the factors associated with both dimensions are similar. The results show that 96% of migrants who wanted to stay in Switzerland actually stayed and that 71% of those who wanted to leave the country actually left. Overall, intentions were a good predictor of behaviors, and the factors associated with remigration intentions and actual behaviors were almost the same. However, intentions reflected migrants’ personal feelings at the time of the survey and sometimes reflected their potential to remain in Switzerland from a legal point of view. Behaviors were more rational than intentions in that migrants’ reflections on their actual situations were more profound, and their choices to stay in Switzerland or to leave were thus influenced by rational elements such as their labor market situations or family constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Wanner, 2021. "Can Migrants’ Emigration Intentions Predict Their Actual Behaviors? Evidence from a Swiss Survey," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1151-1179, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joimai:v:22:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s12134-020-00798-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s12134-020-00798-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12134-020-00798-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12134-020-00798-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
    2. Douglas S. Massey & Ilana Redstone Akresh, 2006. "Immigrant Intentions and Mobility in a Global Economy: The Attitudes and Behavior of Recently Arrived U.S. Immigrants," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(s1), pages 954-971.
    3. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Weynandt, Michèle A., 2013. "Explaining Differences Between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 133(2), pages 249-261.
    4. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Steiner, Viktor & Velling, Johannes, 1992. "Re-migration behaviour and expected duration of stay of guest-workers in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 92-14, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Frédéric Docquier & Giovanni Peri & Ilse Ruyssen, 2016. "The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 12, pages 361-423, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Andreas Ette & Barbara Heß & Lenore Sauer, 2016. "Tackling Germany’s Demographic Skills Shortage: Permanent Settlement Intentions of the Recent Wave of Labour Migrants from Non-European Countries," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 429-448, May.
    8. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
    9. Oded Stark, 1991. "The Migration of Labor," Blackwell Books, Wiley Blackwell, number 1557860300, June.
    10. van Dalen, H.P. & Henkens, K., 2008. "Emigration Intentions : Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior," Discussion Paper 2008-60, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Enel Pungas & Ott Toomet & Tiit Tammaru & Kristi Anniste, 2012. "Are Better Educated Migrants Returning? Evidence from Multi-Dimensional Education Data," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012018, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    12. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    13. Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
    14. Douglas S. Massey & Ilana Redstone Akresh, 2006. "Immigrant Intentions and Mobility in a Global Economy: The Attitudes and Behavior of Recently Arrived U.S. Immigrants," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(5), pages 954-971, December.
    15. Hein de Haas & Tineke Fokkema, 2011. "The effects of integration and transnational ties on international return migration intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(24), pages 755-782.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Porumbescu Alexandra, 2023. "To return or to stay? The situation of Romanian badanti in Italy during the Coronavirus pandemic," Social Change Review, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 77-103, December.
    2. Gabriele Restelli, 2023. "Development and International Migration: The Effect of Income on Regular and Irregular Migration Intentions to Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(1), pages 135-174, March.
    3. Lei Niu & Lulu Yuan & Zhongmin Ding & Yifu Zhao, 2023. "How Do Support Pressure and Urban Housing Purchase Affect the Homecoming Decisions of Rural Migrant Workers? Evidence from Rural China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, July.
    4. Carlos Ayala Durán, 2023. "Intention to Migrate Due to COVID-19: a Study for El Salvador," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 349-368, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Els Bekaert & Amelie F. Constant & Killian Foubert & Ilse Ruyssen, 2021. "Longing for Which Home: Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1028, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Amelie F. Constant, 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8053, CESifo.
    3. Aurelian-Petruş PLOPEANU & Daniel HOMOCIANU, 2020. "Why would Romanian migrants from Western Europe return to their country of origin? Abstract: After conducting a survey among Romanian individuals left abroad, we analyze the particular influences rela," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 211-235, June.
    4. Andreas Ette & Barbara Heß & Lenore Sauer, 2016. "Tackling Germany’s Demographic Skills Shortage: Permanent Settlement Intentions of the Recent Wave of Labour Migrants from Non-European Countries," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 429-448, May.
    5. Philippe Wanner & Marco Pecoraro & Massimiliano Tani, 2021. "Does Educational Mismatch Affect Emigration Behaviour?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 959-995, November.
    6. Ilka Steiner, 2019. "Settlement or Mobility? Immigrants’ Re-migration Decision-Making Process in a High-Income Country Setting," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 223-245, February.
    7. Steinar Strøm & Alessandra Venturini & Claudia Villosio, 2013. "Wage assimilation: migrants versus natives and foreign migrants versus internal migrants," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/30, European University Institute.
    8. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    9. Laurent Bossavie & Çağlar Özden, 2023. "Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 249-294.
    10. Tao Xu, 2022. "The Effect of Health Change on Long-Term Settlement Intentions of International Immigrants in New Destination Countries: Evidence from Yiwu City in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Bijwaard, G.E., 2009. "Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Govert Bijwaard, 2015. "Income of immigrants and their return," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 141-141, April.
    13. Jackline Wahba, 2014. "Return migration and economic development," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 12, pages 327-349, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Zhilin Liu & Yujun Wang & Shaowei Chen, 2017. "Does formal housing encourage settlement intention of rural migrants in Chinese cities? A structural equation model analysis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(8), pages 1834-1850, June.
    15. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    16. Isilda Mara & Michael Landesmann, 2013. "Do I stay because I am happy or am I happy because I stay? Life satisfaction in migration, and the decision to stay permanently, return and out-migrate," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2013008, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    17. Amelie F. Constant, 2019. "Return, Circular, and Onward Migration Decisions in a Knowledge Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 7913, CESifo.
    18. Edmond Akwasi Agyeman & Mercedes Fernández Garcia, 2016. "Connecting Return Intentions and Home Investment: the Case of Ghanaian Migrants in Southern Europe," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 745-759, August.
    19. Giovanni Peri & William Ambrosini & Karin Mayr & Dragos Radu, 2012. "The Selection of Migrants and Returnees in Romania: Evidence and long-run implications," Working Papers 136, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    20. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2017. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 610-621.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joimai:v:22:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s12134-020-00798-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.