Explaining Differences between the Expected and Actual Duration until Return Migration: Economic Changes
AbstractThis paper explores the difference between intentions and realizations in return migration with the help of a duration model. Using the GSOEP the results lend support to the fact that people use simplifying heuristics when trying to forecast the future; their return intentions indicate bunching in heaps of 5 years. Along these lines we find that migrated individuals systematically underestimate the length of their stay in the receiving country. We find that the difference decreases the older one gets, but is larger the more disadvantaged one feels due to ones origin as an example. The robustness checks show that the results do not hinge on a single definition, or set of explaining variables. The consistency in the underestimation may have important policy and modeling implications.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research with number 497.
Length: 12 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Duration analysis; international migration; hedonic forecasting; utility misprediction;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007.
"The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP): Scope, Evolution and Enhancements,"
SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research
1, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
- Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
- Smith, V. Kerry & Taylor, Donald H., Jr. & Sloan, Frank A., 2000.
"Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?,"
00-15, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
- David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2009.
"Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities,"
CReAM Discussion Paper Series
0929, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012013, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
- David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2009. "Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities," NBER Working Papers 15521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994.
"Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born,"
NBER Working Papers
4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christian Dustmann, 2003. "Children and return migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 815-830, November.
- Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.