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Explaining Differences between the Expected and Actual Duration until Return Migration: Economic Changes

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  • Gerard van den Berg
  • Michèle A. Weynandt

Abstract

This paper explores the difference between intentions and realizations in return migration with the help of a duration model. Using the GSOEP the results lend support to the fact that people use simplifying heuristics when trying to forecast the future; their return intentions indicate bunching in heaps of 5 years. Along these lines we find that migrated individuals systematically underestimate the length of their stay in the receiving country. We find that the difference decreases the older one gets, but is larger the more disadvantaged one feels due to ones origin as an example. The robustness checks show that the results do not hinge on a single definition, or set of explaining variables. The consistency in the underestimation may have important policy and modeling implications.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.411252.de/diw_sp0497.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research with number 497.

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Length: 12 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp497

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Related research

Keywords: Duration analysis; international migration; hedonic forecasting; utility misprediction;

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  1. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February.
  2. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, And Compositional Amenities," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 78-119, 02.
  3. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
  4. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
  5. Christian Dustmann, 2003. "Children and return migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 815-830, November.
  6. Smith, V. Kerry & Taylor, Donald H., Jr. & Sloan, Frank A., 2000. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics 00-15, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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