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Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics

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  • Bijwaard, G.E.

Abstract

In this empirical paper we assess how labour market transitions and out- and repeat migration of immigrants are interrelated. We estimate a multi-state multiple spell competing risks model with four states: employed, unemployed receiving benefits, out-of-the-labour market (no benefits) and abroad. We discuss one-step ahead transitions from all four states and the transition probability, including all intermediate transitions, from employment. Based on the estimated parameters we simulate the labour-migration dynamics for a synthetic cohort to derive relevant economic indicators, e.g. the probability of experiencing an unemployment spell. For the analysis we use data on recent labour immigrants to The Netherlands, which implies that all migrants are (self)-employed at the time of arrival. We find that many migrants leave the country after a period of no-income. Employment characteristics and the country of origin play an important role in explaining the dynamics. The microsimulations of synthetic cohorts reveal that many migrants experience unemployment spells, but ten years after arrival only a few are unemployed. They also indicate that the Credit Crunch will not only increase the unemployment among migrants but also departure from the country. An increase in the number of migrants from the EU accession countries will lead to more dynamics. We do not expect that the recent simplification of the entry of high income migrants will have a lasting effect, as many of those migrants leave fast.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2009-25.

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Date of creation: 19 Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:17016

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Keywords: competing risks; immigrant assimilation; labour market transitions; migration dynamics;

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References

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  1. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosenzweig, 1982. "Estimating the emigration rates of legal immigrants using administrative and survey data: The 1971 cohort of immigrants to the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 279-290, August.
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  12. Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1213-1247, September.
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  16. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2001. "Migration and Immigrants: The Case of the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-042/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  17. Larry Long & C. Tucker & William Urton, 1988. "Migration distances: An international comparison," Demography, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 633-640, November.
  18. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  19. Kirdar, Murat G., 2008. "Estimating the impact of immigrants on the host country social security system when return migration is an endogenous choice," MPRA Paper 7803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  2. Govert E. Bijwaard & Christian Schluter & Jackline Wahba, 2011. "The Impact of Labour Market Dynamics on the Return-Migration of Immigrants," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2011007, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  3. Govert Bijwaard, 2012. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multiple-Spell Multiple-States Duration Models," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012033, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  4. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants' Earnings Profiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4617, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Govert Bijwaard & Jackline Wahba, 2013. "Do High-Income or Low-Income Immigrants Leave Faster?," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2013013, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.

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