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What Determines the Duration of Stay of Immigrants in Germany?: Evidence from a Longitudinal Duration Analysis

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  • Sebastian Gundel
  • Heiko Peters

Abstract

We analyze the return-migration of German immigrants using the latest data of the German Socio- Economic Panel from 1984 to 2006. We conduct a Cox proportional hazard model with years of residence in Germany as waiting time. The analysis reveals that return migration is heavily influenced by country of origin. Individuals from countries with free labor movement agreements with Germany show a considerably higher likelihood of leaving the country relative to the others. The main finding is, with respect to the self-selection process we discovered that highly skilled are more likely to return than the less skilled. In addition, the results give plenty of information regarding the design of German immigration policy.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.78211.de/diw_sp0079.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research with number 79.

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Length: 17 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp79

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Keywords: Remigration; Cox proportional hazard model; Germany;

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References

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  1. Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
  2. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
  3. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," NBER Working Papers 4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
  5. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
  6. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November.
  7. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Christian Dustmann, 2003. "Children and return migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 815-830, November.
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