The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis
AbstractWhile the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this Paper provides a modelling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country; but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4124.
Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Other versions of this item:
- Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2012. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 362-388, 06.
- Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 378, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2003. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
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- Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003.
"Circular Movements and Time away from the Host Country,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
390, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2004. "Circular Movements and Time Away From the Host Country," CEPR Discussion Papers 4228, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2003. "Circular Movements and Time Away from the Host Country," IZA Discussion Papers 960, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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- DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November.
- Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003.
"Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002. "Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 672, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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