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What about Coal?: Interactions between Climate Policies and the Global Steam Coal Market until 2030

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  • Clemens Haftendorn
  • Claudia Kemfert
  • Franziska Holz

Abstract

Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often their first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand centers through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market until 2030: the "COALMOD-World" model. The COALMOD-World model is an equilibrium model that computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a carbon capture and storage (CCS) fast-roll out policy in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.376974.de/dp1146.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1146.

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Length: 22 p.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1146

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Keywords: climate policy; future coal production; energy; numerical modeling; international trade;

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References

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  1. Patzek, Tadeusz W. & Croft, Gregory D., 2010. "A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3109-3122.
  2. Bohringer, Christoph, 1998. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down in energy policy modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 233-248, June.
  3. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2000. "Decomposing the cost of Kyoto: a global CGE analysis of multilateral policy impacts," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-11, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Paulus, Moritz & Trüby, Johannes, 2011. "Coal lumps vs. electrons: How do Chinese bulk energy transport decisions affect the global steam coal market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1127-1137.
  5. Holz, Franziska & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia, 2008. "A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 766-788, May.
  6. Gibbins, Jon & Chalmers, Hannah, 2008. "Carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4317-4322, December.
  7. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
  8. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
  9. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: A supply side approach," Munich Reprints in Economics 19638, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  10. Boehringer Christoph & Fischer Carolyn & Rosendahl Knut Einar, 2010. "The Global Effects of Subglobal Climate Policies," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-35, December.
  11. Bovenberg, A.L. & Goulder, L.H. & Gurney, D.J., 2003. "Efficiency Costs of Meeting Industry-Distributional Constraints under Environmental Permits and Taxes," Discussion Paper 2003-86, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Trueby, Johannes & Paulus, Moritz, 2011. "Market Structure Scenarios in International Steam Coal Trade," EWI Working Papers 2011-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  13. Daniel Huppmann & Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Sophia Ruester & Christian von Hirschhausen & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 931, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  14. Demailly, Damien & Quirion, Philippe, 2008. "European Emission Trading Scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 2009-2027, July.
  15. Pindyck, Robert S., 1981. "Models of resource markets and the explanation of resource price behaviour," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 130-139, July.
  16. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz, 2010. "Modeling and Analysis of the International Steam Coal Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 205-230.
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Cited by:
  1. Paulus, Moritz, 2012. "How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?," EWI Working Papers 2012-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.

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