IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v34y2009i10p1510-1522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prospects of gas supply until 2020 in Europe and its relevance for the power sector in the context of emission trading

Author

Listed:
  • Möst, Dominik
  • Perlwitz, Holger

Abstract

With the liberalization of energy markets and the introduction of an emission trading system, electricity production by gas combined cycle power plants has significantly increased in the European Union in recent years. Reasons for the significant increase include the short construction time for gas power plants and the favourable investment costs. One further advantage is the relatively low CO2 emissions of gas power plants. Thus, a key option for reducing emissions is seen in the increased use of gas for power production. Model calculations from various models show that an increase of gas power production is expected. In general, however, the interdependencies of the different markets (gas, electricity and CO2) as well as the country-specific gas supply options, determined by pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are neglected. As the competitiveness of gas power plants mainly depends on the availability of gas and the gas price, a novel model that integrates electricity, gas, and CO2- emission markets assuming perfect competition will be presented. The objective of this paper is to analyse the long-term relevance of the gas market for the electricity sector in the European Union in the context of CO2-emission reduction targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Möst, Dominik & Perlwitz, Holger, 2009. "Prospects of gas supply until 2020 in Europe and its relevance for the power sector in the context of emission trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1510-1522.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:34:y:2009:i:10:p:1510-1522
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.06.045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544209002667
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2009.06.045?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
    2. SMEERS, Yves, 1997. "Computable equilibrium models and the restructuring of the European electricity and gas markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1997061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
    4. Perner, J. & Seeliger, A., 2004. "Prospects of gas supplies to the European market until 2030--results from the simulation model EUGAS," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 291-302, December.
    5. Lee, Tom K., 1983. "Bilateral trade, dynamic bargaining and nonrenewable resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 169-178, February.
    6. Yiannis Antoniou, Pantelis Capros, 1999. "Decision support system framework of the PRIMES energy model of the European Commission," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1/2/3/4/5), pages 92-119.
    7. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
    8. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-18.
    9. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 85-112.
    10. Christoph Weber, 2005. "Uncertainty in the Electric Power Industry," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-23048-1, December.
    11. Holz, Franziska & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia, 2008. "A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 766-788, May.
    12. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
    13. Yves Smeers, 1997. "Computable Equilibrium Models and the Restructuring of the European Electricity and Gas Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-31.
    14. Finon, Dominique, 1974. "Optimisation model for the French energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 136-151, June.
    15. Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
    16. Messner, Sabine & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2000. "MESSAGE–MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 267-282.
    17. Smeers, Y., 1997. "Computable equilibrium models and the restructuring of the European electricity and gas markets," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1280, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reiche, Danyel, 2010. "Sovereign wealth funds as a new instrument of climate protection policy? A case study of Norway as a pioneer of ethical guidelines for investment policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3569-3577.
    2. Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2483-2492.
    3. Rusu, Eugen & Onea, Florin, 2013. "Evaluation of the wind and wave energy along the Caspian Sea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Iegor Riepin & Thomas Mobius & Felix Musgens, 2020. "Modelling uncertainty in coupled electricity and gas systems -- is it worth the effort?," Papers 2008.07221, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    5. Hauser, Philipp, 2021. "Does ‘more’ equal ‘better’? – Analyzing the impact of diversification strategies on infrastructure in the European gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Abada, Ibrahim & Briat, Vincent & Massol, Olivier, 2013. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 240-251.
    7. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro & Gustavo Soutinho & Isabel Soares, 2023. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, February.
    8. Jan Abrell & Hannes Weigt, 2012. "Combining Energy Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 377-401, September.
    9. Jan Abrell & Clemens Gerbaulet & Franziska Holz & Casimir Lorenz & Hannes Weigt, 2013. "Combining Energy Networks: The Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Network on Electricity Markets until 2050," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1317, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Dieckhöner, Caroline & Lochner, Stefan & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "European natural gas infrastructure: The impact of market developments on gas flows and physical market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 994-1003.
    11. Blanca Moreno & María T García-à lvarez, 2017. "Analyzing the impact of fossil fuel import reliance on electricity prices: The case of the Iberian Electricity Market," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(7), pages 687-705, November.
    12. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    13. Chicco, Gianfranco & Stephenson, Paule M., 2012. "Effectiveness of setting cumulative carbon dioxide emissions reduction targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 19-31.
    14. Hauser, Philipp & Heinrichs, Heidi U. & Gillessen, Bastian & Müller, Theresa, 2018. "Implications of diversification strategies in the European natural gas market for the German energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 442-454.
    15. Deane, J.P. & Ó Ciaráin, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2017. "An integrated gas and electricity model of the EU energy system to examine supply interruptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 479-490.
    16. Mo, Jian-Lei & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2012. "The impact of the EU ETS on the corporate value of European electricity corporations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-11.
    17. Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2010. "Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2898-2910, June.
    18. Philipp Hauser & Sina Heidari & Christoph Weber & Dominik Möst, 2019. "Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Moreno, Blanca & Díaz, Guzmán, 2019. "The impact of virtual power plant technology composition on wholesale electricity prices: A comparative study of some European Union electricity markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 100-108.
    20. Kamiński, Jacek, 2011. "Market power in a coal-based power generation sector: The case of Poland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6634-6644.
    21. Jan Abrell and Hannes Weigt, 2016. "The Short and Long Term Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Market on Electricity Markets until 2050," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    22. Senderov, Sergey M. & Smirnova, Elena M. & Vorobev, Sergey V., 2020. "Analysis of vulnerability of fuel supply systems in gas-consuming regions due to failure of critical gas industry facilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    23. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2010. "The future of the European natural gas market: A quantitative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3332-3339.
    24. Sina Heidari, 2020. "How Strategic Behavior of Natural Gas Exporters Can Affect the Sectors of Electricity, Heating, and Emission Trading during the European Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-20, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    2. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    3. Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
    4. Franziska Holz & Philipp M. Richter & Ruud Egging, 2013. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1273, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Christian Growitsch & Harald Hecking & Timo Panke, 2014. "Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 944-975, November.
    6. Gijsbert T.J. Zwart, 2009. "European Natural Gas Markets: Resource Constraints and Market Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 151-166.
    7. Gijsbert Zwart & S. Ikonnikova, 2010. "Reinforcing buyer power: Trade quotas and supply diversification in the EU natural gas market," CPB Discussion Paper 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 132-155.
    9. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "Study of the evolution of the northwestern European natural gas markets using S-GaMMES," Working Papers 1203, Chaire Economie du climat.
    10. Jia, Weidong & Gong, Chengzhu & Pan, Kai & Yu, Shiwei, 2023. "Potential changes of regional natural gas market in China amidst liberalization: A mixed complementarity equilibrium simulation in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    11. Holz, Franziska & Richter, Philipp M. & Egging, Ruud, 2016. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Supply Security," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 37(SI37), pages 33-59.
    12. Wang, Xiaolin & Qiu, Yangyang & Chen, Jun & Hu, Xiangping, 2022. "Evaluating natural gas supply security in China: An exhaustible resource market equilibrium model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Holz, Franziska & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia, 2008. "A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 766-788, May.
    14. Gijsbert T.J. Zwart, 2009. "European Natural Gas Markets: Resource Constraints and Market Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 151-166.
    15. Möst, Dominik & Keles, Dogan, 2010. "A survey of stochastic modelling approaches for liberalised electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 543-556, December.
    16. Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
    17. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
    18. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
    19. Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
    20. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:34:y:2009:i:10:p:1510-1522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.