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COALMOD-World: A Model to Assess International Coal Markets until 2030

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  • Clemens Haftendorn
  • Franziska Holz
  • Christian von Hirschhausen

Abstract

Coal continues to be an important fuel in many countries' energy mix and, despite the climate change concerns, it is likely to maintain this position for the next decades. In this paper a numerical model is developed to investigate the evolution of the international market for steam coal, the coal type used for electricity generation. The main focus is on future trade ows and investments in production and transport infrastructure until 2030. "COALMOD-World" is an equilibrium model, formulated in the complementarity format. It includes all major steam coal exporting and importing countries and represents the international trade as one globalized market. Some suppliers of coal are at the same time major consumers, such as the USA and China. Therefore, domestic markets are also included in the model to analyze their interaction with the international market. Because of the different qualities of steam coal, we include different heating values depending on the origin of the coal. At the same time we observe the mass-specific constraints on production, transport and export capacity. The time horizon of our analysis is until 2030, in 5-year steps. Production costs change endogenously over time. Moreover, endogenous investments are included based on a net present value optimization approach and and the shadow prices of capacities constraints. Investments can be carried out in production, inland freight capacities (rail in most countries), and export terminals. The paper finishes with an application of the model to a base case scenario and suggestions for alternative scenarios.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.362080.de/dp1067.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1067.

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Length: 57 p.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1067

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Keywords: coal; energy; numerical modeling; investments; international trade;

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References

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  1. Aleksandar Zaklan & Astrid Cullmann & Anne Neumann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2009. "The Globalization of Steam Coal Markets and the Role of Logistics: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 956, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Daniel Huppmann & Franziska Holz, 2009. "A Model for the Global Crude Oil Market Using a Multi-Pool MCP Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 869, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Raymond Li & Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2010. "International Steam Coal Market Integration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 181-202.
  4. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
  5. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
  6. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz, 2010. "Modeling and Analysis of the International Steam Coal Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 205-230.
  7. Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "The World Gas Model: A Multi-Period Mixed Complementarity Model for the Global Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Dahl, Carol A., 1993. "A survey of energy demand elasticities in support of the development of the NEMS," MPRA Paper 13962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
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Cited by:
  1. Grogro, Ole, 2012. "Global energy trade flows and constraints on conventional and renewable energies: A computable modeling approach," ZEW Dokumentationen 12-02, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Paulus, Moritz, 2012. "How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?," EWI Working Papers 2012-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.

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