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Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model

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Author Info

  • Lise, Wietze
  • Hobbs, Benjamin F.
  • van Oostvoorn, Frits

Abstract

Growth in gas demand poses a challenge for European energy consumers and other gas-importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security. This paper focuses on interactions among demand, supply, and investments in natural gas corridors, namely pipeline transport, LNG, and storage facilities, affecting the European natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. A number of policy scenarios, including a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in Europe. The analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations. Analysis of scenarios of supply interruption, in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes, indicates that portions of Europe could experience price increases of up to 100% in the case of a year-long interruption. To accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions, pipeline connections running from East to West need to be given special priority.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1890-1906

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:6:p:1890-1906

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Growitsch, Christian & Hecking, Harald & Panke, Timo, 2013. "Supply disruptions and regional price effects in a spatial oligopoly - an application to the global gas market," EWI Working Papers 2013-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  2. Gijsbert Zwart, 2008. "European natural gas markets: resource constraints and market power," CPB Discussion Paper 116, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. de Joode, J. & Özdemir, Ö., 2010. "Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5817-5829, October.
  4. Keyaerts, Nico & D'haeseleer, William, 2014. "Forum shopping for ex-post gas-balancing services," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 209-221.
  5. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2006. "A Strategic Model of European Gas Supply (GASMOD)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 551, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2010. "COALMOD-World: A Model to Assess International Coal Markets until 2030," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1067, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
  8. Clemens Haftendorn & Claudia Kemfert & Franziska Holz, 2011. "What about Coal?: Interactions between Climate Policies and the Global Steam Coal Market until 2030," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1146, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. dos Santos, Sidney Pereira & Eugenio Leal, José & Oliveira, Fabrício, 2011. "The development of a natural gas transportation logistics management system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4774-4784, September.
  10. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
  11. Bilgin, Mert, 2009. "Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4482-4492, November.

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