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NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market

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  • Gijsbert Zwart

    ()

  • Machiel Mulder

Abstract

The NATural GAS model is an integrated model of the European wholesale gas market providing long-run projections of supply, transport, storage and consumption patterns in the model region, aggregated in 5-year periods, distinguishing two seasons (winter and summer). Model results include levels of investment in the various branches, output and consumption, depletion of reserves and price levels. The NATGAS model computes long-term effects of policy measures on future gas production and gas prices in Europe. NATGAS is an equilibrium model describing behaviour of gas producers, investors in infrastructure (pipeline, LNG capacity, as well as storage), traders and consumers. NATGAS covers the main European demand regions, including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Moreover, it covers the main origins of supply on the European market, such as Russia, Norway, Algeria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and LNG. In this memorandum, we first discuss the theoretical background as well as the model specifications. Afterwards, we describe the data we used, present some results and assess validity by computing sensitivities and comparing with current developments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Memorandum with number 144.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:memodm:144

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  1. Bergman, Lars & Andersson, Bo, 1995. "Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An ex ante Analysis of the deregulated Swedish Electricity Market," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 47, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. Stern, Jonathan, 2004. "UK gas security: time to get serious," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(17), pages 1967-1979, November.
  3. Groot, F. & Withagen, C.A.A.M. & Zeeuw, A.J. de, 2003. "Strong time-consistency in the cartel-versus-fringe model," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-117032, Tilburg University.
  4. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Market failures and government policies in gas markets," CPB Memorandum 143, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  5. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell, 1998. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," NBER Working Papers 6463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 85-112.
  7. Golombec, R. & Gjelsvik, E. & Knut, E. & Rosendahl, E., 1996. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side on the Western European Natural Gas Merket," Memorandum 11/1996, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  8. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Government involvement in liberalised gas markets; a welfare-economic analysis of Dutch gas-depletion policy," CPB Document 110, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  9. Bo Andersson & Lars Bergman, 1995. "Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An Ex Ante Analysis of the Deregulated Swedish Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 97-110.
  10. Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
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Cited by:
  1. Mark Lijesen & Hein Mannaerts & Machiel Mulder, 2002. "Will California come to Europe? A Numerical Simulation," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 173-188, June.
  2. Ruud Egging & Steven A. Gabriel & Franziska Holz & Jifang Zhuang, 2007. "A Complementarity Model for the European Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 732, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.

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