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NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market

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Author Info
Machiel Mulder
Gijsbert Zwart ()

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Abstract

The NATural GAS model is an integrated model of the European wholesale gas market providing long-run projections of supply, transport, storage and consumption patterns in the model region, aggregated in 5-year periods, distinguishing two seasons (winter and summer). Model results include levels of investment in the various branches, output and consumption, depletion of reserves and price levels. The NATGAS model computes long-term effects of policy measures on future gas production and gas prices in Europe. NATGAS is an equilibrium model describing behaviour of gas producers, investors in infrastructure (pipeline, LNG capacity, as well as storage), traders and consumers. NATGAS covers the main European demand regions, including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Moreover, it covers the main origins of supply on the European market, such as Russia, Norway, Algeria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and LNG. In this memorandum, we first discuss the theoretical background as well as the model specifications. Afterwards, we describe the data we used, present some results and assess validity by computing sensitivities and comparing with current developments.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Memoranda with number 144.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:memodm:144

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Related research
Keywords: gas market modelling; European gas market; equilibrium model; natural resources;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Stern, Jonathan, 2004. "UK gas security: time to get serious," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(17), pages 1967-1979, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bo Andersson & Lars Bergman, 1995. "Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An Ex Ante Analysis of the Deregulated Swedish Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 97-110.
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  4. Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(3), pages 285-323, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bergman, Lars & Andersson, Bo, 1995. "Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An ex ante Analysis of the deregulated Swedish Electricity Market," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 47, Stockholm School of Economics.
  6. Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire, 1994. "Computing Markov-Perfect Nash Equilibria: Numerical Implications of a Dynamic Differentiated Product Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(4), pages 555-589, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 1-18.
  8. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Market failures and government policies in gas markets," CPB Memoranda 143, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Groot, Fons & Withagen, Cees & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2003. "Strong time-consistency in the cartel-versus-fringe model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 287-306, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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