IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v253y2016i3p791-810.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multicriteria decision support to evaluate potential long-term natural gas supply alternatives: The case of GreeceAuthor-Name: Androulaki, Stella

Author

Listed:
  • Psarras, John

Abstract

This paper assesses 27 alternative natural gas supply corridors for the case of Greece, according to a multicriteria analysis approach based on three main pillars: (1) economics of supply, (2) security of supply, and (3) cooperation between countries. The alternatives include onshore and offshore pipeline corridors and LNG shipping, determined after exhaustive investigation of all possible existing and future routes, taking into consideration all possible natural gas infrastructure development projects around Greece. A multicriteria additive value system is assessed via the robust ordinal regression methodology, aiming to support the national energy policy makers to devise favorable strategies, concerning both long-term national natural gas supplies and infrastructure developments. The obtained ranking shows that noticeable alternative corridors for gas passage to Greece do exist both in terms of maritime transport of LNG and in terms of potential future pipeline infrastructure projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Psarras, John, 2016. "Multicriteria decision support to evaluate potential long-term natural gas supply alternatives: The case of GreeceAuthor-Name: Androulaki, Stella," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 791-810.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:253:y:2016:i:3:p:791-810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.02.051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221716301047
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.02.051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Michel Guldmann, 1986. "A Marginal-Cost Pricing Model for Gas Distribution Utilities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 851-863, December.
    2. Van de Graaf, Thijs & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2014. "Thinking big: Politics, progress, and security in the management of Asian and European energy megaprojects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 16-27.
    3. Hamedi, Maryam & Farahani, Reza Zanjirani & Husseini, Mohammad Moattar & Esmaeilian, Gholam Reza, 2009. "Corrigendum to "A distribution planning model for natural gas supply chain: A case study" [Energy Policy 37 (2009) 799-812]," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3708-3708, September.
    4. William Avery & Gerald G. Brown & John A. Rosenkranz & R. Kevin Wood, 1992. "Optimization of Purchase, Storage and Transmission Contracts for Natural Gas Utilities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 446-462, June.
    5. Jacquet-Lagreze, E. & Siskos, J., 1982. "Assessing a set of additive utility functions for multicriteria decision-making, the UTA method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-164, June.
    6. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
    7. Holz, Franziska & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia, 2008. "A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 766-788, May.
    8. Aouam, Tarik & Rardin, Ronald & Abrache, Jawad, 2010. "Robust strategies for natural gas procurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 151-158, August.
    9. Bilgin, Mert, 2009. "Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4482-4492, November.
    10. Hurson, Christian & Siskos, Yannis, 2014. "A synergy of multicriteria techniques to assess additive value models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 540-551.
    11. Kadziński, MiŁosz & Greco, Salvatore & SŁowiński, Roman, 2012. "Extreme ranking analysis in robust ordinal regression," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 488-501.
    12. Greco, Salvatore & Mousseau, Vincent & Slowinski, Roman, 2008. "Ordinal regression revisited: Multiple criteria ranking using a set of additive value functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 416-436, December.
    13. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
    14. Hamedi, Maryam & Zanjirani Farahani, Reza & Husseini, Mohammad Moattar & Esmaeilian, Gholam Reza, 2009. "A distribution planning model for natural gas supply chain: A case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 799-812, March.
    15. Luis Contesse & Juan Ferrer & Sergio Maturana, 2005. "A Mixed-Integer Programming Model for Gas Purchase and Transportation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 39-63, October.
    16. Bopp, A. E. & Kannan, V. R. & Palocsay, S. W. & Stevens, S. P., 1996. "An optimization model for planning natural gas purchases, transportation, storage and deliverability," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 511-522, October.
    17. Gilbert, François & Anjos, Miguel F. & Marcotte, Patrice & Savard, Gilles, 2015. "Optimal design of bilateral contracts for energy procurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 641-650.
    18. Jean-Michel Guldmann, 1983. "Supply, Storage, and Service Reliability Decisions by Gas Distribution Utilities: A Chance-Constrained Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(8), pages 884-906, August.
    19. Grigoroudis, E. & Siskos, Y., 2002. "Preference disaggregation for measuring and analysing customer satisfaction: The MUSA method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 148-170, November.
    20. Mavrakis, Dimitrios & Thomaidis, Fotios & Ntroukas, Ioannis, 2006. "An assessment of the natural gas supply potential of the south energy corridor from the Caspian Region to the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1671-1680, September.
    21. Elin Halvorsen-Weare & Kjetil Fagerholt, 2013. "Routing and scheduling in a liquefied natural gas shipping problem with inventory and berth constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 203(1), pages 167-186, March.
    22. Siskos, Eleftherios & Tsotsolas, Nikos, 2015. "Elicitation of criteria importance weights through the Simos method: A robustness concern," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 543-553.
    23. Kadziński, Miłosz & Greco, Salvatore & Słowiński, Roman, 2013. "RUTA: A framework for assessing and selecting additive value functions on the basis of rank related requirements," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 735-751.
    24. Reuven R. Levary & Burton V. Dean, 1980. "A Natural Gas Flow Model under Uncertainty in Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(6), pages 1360-1374, December.
    25. Mutlu, Fatih & Msakni, Mohamed K. & Yildiz, Hakan & Sönmez, Erkut & Pokharel, Shaligram, 2016. "A comprehensive annual delivery program for upstream liquefied natural gas supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 120-130.
    26. Gijsbert Zwart & Machiel Mulder, 2006. "NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market," CPB Memorandum 144, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    27. Afgan, Naim H. & Pilavachi, Petros A. & Carvalho, Maria G., 2007. "Multi-criteria evaluation of natural gas resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 704-713, January.
    28. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
    29. Kabirian, Alireza & Hemmati, Mohammad Reza, 2007. "A strategic planning model for natural gas transmission networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5656-5670, November.
    30. Brito, Anderson J. & de Almeida, Adiel Teixeira & Mota, Caroline M.M., 2010. "A multicriteria model for risk sorting of natural gas pipelines based on ELECTRE TRI integrating Utility Theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 812-821, February.
    31. Jacquet-Lagreze, Eric & Siskos, Yannis, 2001. "Preference disaggregation: 20 years of MCDA experience," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 233-245, April.
    32. Thomas W. Knowles & John P. Wirick, 1998. "The Peoples Gas Light and Coke Company Plans Gas Supply," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 1-12, October.
    33. Henao, Felipe & Cherni, Judith A. & Jaramillo, Patricia & Dyner, Isaac, 2012. "A multicriteria approach to sustainable energy supply for the rural poor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 801-809.
    34. Guldmann, Jean-Michel & Wang, Fahui, 1999. "Optimizing the natural gas supply mix of local distribution utilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 598-612, February.
    35. Daniel De Wolf & Yves Smeers, 2000. "The Gas Transmission Problem Solved by an Extension of the Simplex Algorithm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(11), pages 1454-1465, November.
    36. Lyness, F. K., 1978. "O.R. and U.K. natural gas depletion strategy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 160-167, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomes Relva, Stefania & Oliveira da Silva, Vinícius & Peyerl, Drielli & Veiga Gimenes, André Luiz & Molares Udaeta, Miguel Edgar, 2020. "Regulating the electro-energetic use of natural gas by gas-to-wire offshore technology: Case study from Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Eleni Strantzali & Konstantinos Aravossis & Georgios A. Livanos & Nikos Chrysanthopoulos, 2018. "A Novel Multicriteria Evaluation of Small-Scale LNG Supply Alternatives: The Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris & Xidonas, Panos & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2017. "Multicriteria decision support in local energy planning: An evaluation of alternative scenarios for the Sustainable Energy Action Plan," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Ciomek, Krzysztof & Kadziński, Miłosz & Tervonen, Tommi, 2017. "Heuristics for selecting pair-wise elicitation questions in multiple criteria choice problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(2), pages 693-707.
    3. Kadziński, Miłosz & Wójcik, Michał & Ciomek, Krzysztof, 2022. "Review and experimental comparison of ranking and choice procedures for constructing a univocal recommendation in a preference disaggregation setting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Hurson, Christian & Siskos, Yannis, 2014. "A synergy of multicriteria techniques to assess additive value models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 540-551.
    5. Ozelkan, Ertunga C. & D'Ambrosio, Alfred & Teng, S. Gary, 2008. "Optimizing liquefied natural gas terminal design for effective supply-chain operations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 529-542, February.
    6. Hamedi, Maryam & Zanjirani Farahani, Reza & Husseini, Mohammad Moattar & Esmaeilian, Gholam Reza, 2009. "A distribution planning model for natural gas supply chain: A case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 799-812, March.
    7. Aouam, Tarik & Rardin, Ronald & Abrache, Jawad, 2010. "Robust strategies for natural gas procurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 151-158, August.
    8. Ghaderi, Mohammad & Ruiz, Francisco & Agell, Núria, 2017. "A linear programming approach for learning non-monotonic additive value functions in multiple criteria decision aiding," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1073-1084.
    9. Cinelli, Marco & Kadziński, Miłosz & Miebs, Grzegorz & Gonzalez, Michael & Słowiński, Roman, 2022. "Recommending multiple criteria decision analysis methods with a new taxonomy-based decision support system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 633-651.
    10. Grigoroudis, Evangelos & Noel, Laurent & Galariotis, Emilios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2021. "An ordinal regression approach for analyzing consumer preferences in the art market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 718-733.
    11. Emenike, Scholastica N. & Falcone, Gioia, 2020. "A review on energy supply chain resilience through optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Bous, Géraldine & Fortemps, Philippe & Glineur, François & Pirlot, Marc, 2010. "ACUTA: A novel method for eliciting additive value functions on the basis of holistic preference statements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 435-444, October.
    13. Zarei, Javad & Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza, 2019. "An integrated optimization model for natural gas supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1114-1130.
    14. Angelopoulos, Dimitrios & Siskos, Yannis & Psarras, John, 2019. "Disaggregating time series on multiple criteria for robust forecasting: The case of long-term electricity demand in Greece," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 252-265.
    15. Kadziński, Miłosz & Tervonen, Tommi, 2013. "Robust multi-criteria ranking with additive value models and holistic pair-wise preference statements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 169-180.
    16. Mastorakis, Kostis & Siskos, Eleftherios, 2016. "Value focused pharmaceutical strategy determination with multicriteria decision analysis techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 84-96.
    17. Zheng, Jun & Lienert, Judit, 2018. "Stakeholder interviews with two MAVT preference elicitation philosophies in a Swiss water infrastructure decision: Aggregation using SWING-weighting and disaggregation using UTAGMS," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 273-287.
    18. Üster, Halit & Dilaveroğlu, Şebnem, 2014. "Optimization for design and operation of natural gas transmission networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 56-69.
    19. Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "Optimal Commodity Trading with a Capacitated Storage Asset," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 449-467, March.
    20. Guldmann, Jean-Michel & Wang, Fahui, 1999. "Optimizing the natural gas supply mix of local distribution utilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 598-612, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:253:y:2016:i:3:p:791-810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.