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Determinantes de los precios internacionales de los bienes básicos

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Author Info

  • Carolina Arteaga

    ()

  • Joan Granados

    ()

  • Jair Ojeda

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se analiza la respuesta dinámica de los precios de los bienes básicos más relevantes para la evolución de la inflación en Colombia ante choques en un conjunto de sus determinantes. El documento está basado en modelos VAR estructurales en los cuales los choques exógenos son identificados mediante restricciones a los efectos contemporáneos entre las variables del sistema. Para la estimación se utilizan datos trimestrales para el periodo 1980q1 a 2010q3. De acuerdo con los resultados, la política monetaria, el tipo de cambio multilateral de Estados Unidos y el PIB de países desarrollados y emergentes explica un porcentaje considerable de la varianza del error de pronóstico de los precios de los bienes básicos. Adicionalmente, en términos generales la respuesta de los precios ante un choque contractivo de la política monetaria es negativa, instantánea y estadísticamente significativa. Los choques al tipo de cambio muestran una relación negativa con los precios aunque no siempre significativa y en la mayoría de los casos las variables de actividad real tanto de países desarrollados como emergentes tienen una relación positiva con los precios considerados.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 009435.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009435

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Keywords: Precios de bienes básicos; VAR estructural.;

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