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Chile’s Economic Growth

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Author Info
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

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Abstract

Chile’s average per-capita GDP growth of 4.1% during 1991-2005 was significantly higher than average world growth during the same period and was a strong break from its own past. How much of Chile’s recent growth is trend growth and how much is cyclical, influenced largely by external conditions? Which are the main determinants of Chile’s longterm growth and cyclical fluctuations, according to the recent empirical literature? Which are the country’s main growth strengths and weaknesses, and, based on the latter, which are the policy reforms advocated by recent technical studies and campaign proposals? This review article addresses the latter questions, starting with the facts about Chile’s average growth and growth volatility at the aggregate, regional, and economic-sector level. Then the paper surveys trend growth studies for Chile that range from decomposition by sources of growth to econometric and simulation studies of deep growth determinants, based on international panel-data and national time-series evidence, and on research focused on individual reforms. Studies on short-term output fluctuations and cyclical recoveries in Chile, also comprising cross-country and national time-series evidence, are presented next. The May 2006 issue of Cuadernos de Economía publishes six new, relevant research papers on Chile’s growth, which are briefly introduced. Then the paper reviews selectively growth-enhancing policy proposals that have been put forward by academic authors, international organizations, and presidential candidates in their 2005 campaign programs. An epilogue with brief thoughts about Chile’s growth potential and policy reform challenges closes the paper.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 365.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:365

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Vittorio Corbo & Leonardo Hernández & Fernando Parro, 2005. "Institutions, Economic Policies and Growth: Lessons From the Chilean Experience," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 317, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fontaine, Ernesto R, 1997. "Project Evaluation Training and Public Investment in Chile," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 63-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Sources of Growth and Behavior of TFP in Chile," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 113-142. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert J Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Implications of the Global Evidence for Chile," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(107), pages 443-478. [Downloadable!]
  6. MD. Ramirez, 2000. "Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Chile," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 159-169, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harberger, Arnold C, 1970. "Economic Policy Problems in Latin America: A Review," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1007-16, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Selowsky, Marcelo, 1969. "On the Measurement of Education's Contribution to Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 449-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Condon, Timothy & Corbo, Vittorio & de Melo, Jaime, 1985. "Productivity growth, external shocks, and capital inflows in Chile: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 379-405. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gabriela Contreras M & Pablo García S, 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 165, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1994. "Trade and Industrial Policy Reform in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 4772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Elias, Victor Jorge, 1978. "Sources of Economic Growth in Latin American Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(3), pages 362-70, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2004. "Economic Growth in Latin America and The Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 265, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  16. César Calderón & Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "External Conditions and Growth Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 292, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. César Calderón & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "Cuanto Explican las Reformas y la Calidad de las Instituciones el Crecimiento Chileno? Una Comparación Internacional," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 314, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  18. Raphael Bergoeing & Andrea Repetto, 2006. "Micro Efficiency and Aggregate Growth in Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 218, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Working Papers 3702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 1998. "Chile's Takeoff: Facts, Challenges, Lessons," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 34, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  21. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Trade policy options for Chile : a quantitative evaluation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1783, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1998. "Computational Analysis of the Accession of Chile to the NAFTA and Western Hemisphere Integration," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9820, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Raphael Bergoeing & Andrés Hernando & Andrea Repetto, 2005. "Market Reforms and Efficiency Gains in Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 207, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Tom E. Davis, 1964. "Dualism, stagnation, and inequality: The impact of pension legislation in the Chilean labor market," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 17(3), pages 380-398, April.
  27. Francisco Gallego Y. & Norman Loayza O., 2002. "The Golden Period For Growth In Chile: Explanations And Forecasts," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(1), pages 37-67. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  28. Juan Eduardo Coeymans & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "Efectos de un Acuerdo de Libre Comercio entre Chile y Estados Unidos: Un Enfoque de Equilibrio General," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(94), pages 357-400. [Downloadable!]
  29. Harald Beyer B. & Rodrigo Vergara M., 2002. "Productivity and Economic Growth: the Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 174, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  30. Rómulo A. Chumacero & J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2002. "On the determinants of the Chilean Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 134, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  31. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Rodrigo Fuentes & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Chile’s Free Trade Agreements: How Big is The Deal?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 264, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  32. Lucas Navarro & Raimundo Soto, 2006. "Procyclical Productivity in Manufacturing," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 193-220. [Downloadable!]
  33. Roberto Duncan & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2006. "Regional Convergence in Chile: New Tests, Old Results," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 81-112. [Downloadable!]
  34. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2003. "Institutions Don't Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per Capita Income," NBER Working Papers 9490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. César Calderón & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2006. "Complementarities between Institutions and Openness in Economic Development: Evidence for a Panel of Countries," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 49-80. [Downloadable!]
  37. Fischer, S., 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," Working papers 580, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  38. Dierk Herzer, 2004. "Exportdiversifizierung und Wirtschaftswachstum in Chile: eine ökonometrische Analyse," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 098, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  39. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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