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Chile’s Economic Growth

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  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Abstract

Chile’s average per-capita GDP growth of 4.1% during 1991-2005 was significantly higher than average world growth during the same period and was a strong break from its own past. How much of Chile’s recent growth is trend growth and how much is cyclical, influenced largely by external conditions? Which are the main determinants of Chile’s longterm growth and cyclical fluctuations, according to the recent empirical literature? Which are the country’s main growth strengths and weaknesses, and, based on the latter, which are the policy reforms advocated by recent technical studies and campaign proposals? This review article addresses the latter questions, starting with the facts about Chile’s average growth and growth volatility at the aggregate, regional, and economic-sector level. Then the paper surveys trend growth studies for Chile that range from decomposition by sources of growth to econometric and simulation studies of deep growth determinants, based on international panel-data and national time-series evidence, and on research focused on individual reforms. Studies on short-term output fluctuations and cyclical recoveries in Chile, also comprising cross-country and national time-series evidence, are presented next. The May 2006 issue of Cuadernos de Economía publishes six new, relevant research papers on Chile’s growth, which are briefly introduced. Then the paper reviews selectively growth-enhancing policy proposals that have been put forward by academic authors, international organizations, and presidential candidates in their 2005 campaign programs. An epilogue with brief thoughts about Chile’s growth potential and policy reform challenges closes the paper.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 365.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:365

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References

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  1. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 1999. "Finance and the sources of growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2057, The World Bank.
  2. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Gabriela Contreras M & Pablo García S, 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 165, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Dierk Herzer, 2004. "Exportdiversifizierung und Wirtschaftswachstum in Chile: eine ökonometrische Analyse," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 098, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
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  8. Raphael Bergoeing & Andr�s Hernando & Andrea Repetto, 2005. "Market Reforms and Efficiency Gains in Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 207, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  9. César Calderón & Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "External Conditions and Growth Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 292, Central Bank of Chile.
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  11. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1998. "Computational Analysis of the Accession of Chile to the NAFTA and Western Hemisphere Integration," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9820, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
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  15. Juan Eduardo Coeymans, 1999. "Ciclos y Crecimiento Sostenible a Mediano Plazo en la Economía Chilena," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(107), pages 545-596.
  16. Raphael Bergoeing & Andrea Repetto, 2006. "Micro Efficiency and Aggregate Growth in Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 169-192.
  17. Rauch, James E., 1997. "Balanced and unbalanced growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 41-66, June.
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  22. Juan Eduardo Coeymans, 1978. "Liberalización del Comercio Exterior y sus Efectos sobre la Asignación de Recursos y el Empleo," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 15(45), pages 183-246.
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  26. Vittorio Corbo & Leonardo Hernández & Fernando Parro, 2005. "Institutions, Economic Policies and Growth: Lessons From the Chilean Experience," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 317, Central Bank of Chile.
  27. Lucas Navarro & Raimundo Soto, 2006. "Procyclical Productivity in Manufacturing," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 193-220.
  28. Fontaine, Ernesto R, 1997. "Project Evaluation Training and Public Investment in Chile," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 63-67, May.
  29. Harald Beyer B. & Rodrigo Vergara M., 2002. "Productivity and Economic Growth: the Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 174, Central Bank of Chile.
  30. Robert J Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Implications of the Global Evidence for Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(107), pages 443-478.
  31. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
  32. Rómulo Chumacero & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "On the Determinants of Chilean Economic Growth," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel ( (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 5, pages 163-188 Central Bank of Chile.
  33. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  34. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Trade policy options for Chile : a quantitative evaluation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1783, The World Bank.
  35. Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "Productividad en Chile: Determinantes y Desempeño," Documentos de Trabajo 296, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  36. César Calderón & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2006. "Complementarities between Institutions and Openness in Economic Development: Evidence for a Panel of Countries," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 49-80.
  37. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Sources of Growth and Behavior of TFP in Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 113-142.
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Cited by:
  1. Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Trade composition and total factor productivity: Evidence for Chile," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 116, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 307, Central Bank of Chile.

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