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Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy

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Author Info
Gabriela Contreras M
Pablo García S
Abstract

Trend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, the measurement of these variables is plagued with difficulties. In this paper we propose two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. We compare the difficulties in using each methodology, and we use them to construct measures of the output gap and potential growth for Chile

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 165.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:165

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Francisco A. Gallego, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Real-Time," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 130, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile’s Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 365, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(4), pages 613-633, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Sources of Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 287, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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