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Determinants of Economic Growth: Implications of the Global Evidence for Chile

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Author Info
Robert J Barro

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Abstract

The determinants of economic growth and investment are analyzed in a panel of around 100 countries observed from 1960 to 1995. The data reveal a pattern of conditional convergence in the sense that the growth rate of per capita GDP is inversely related to the starting level of per capita GDP, holding fixed measures of government policies and institutions and the character of the national population. Application of the results to Chile reveal a predicted growth rate for per capita GDP from 1996 to 2006 of 3.0% per year, compared to a sample average of 1.6%. The high growth forecast for Chile reflects particularly relatively low government consumption, high rule of law and investment, and a low fertility rate. Levels of schooling and inflation and the extent of international openness are roughly average in Chile and therefore do not explain the growth-rate differential. The convergence force is negative because Chile is relatively rich in this broad sample.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía.

Volume (Year): 36 (1999)
Issue (Month): 107 ()
Pages: 443-478
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:36:y:1999:i:107:p:443-478

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth; Convergence; Investment; Macroeconomics.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jong-Wha Lee, 1992. "International Trade, Distortions and Long-Run Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 92/90, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eric A. Hanushek & Dongwook Kim, 1995. "Schooling, Labor Force Quality, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. José De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1999. "Economic Growth in Latin America: Sources and Prospects," Documentos de Trabajo 66, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile’s Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 365, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jose De Gregorio, 2004. "Economic Growth in Chile: Evidence, Sources and Prospects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 298, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Trade Agreements: The Market Size Effect Revisited," IMF Working Papers 04/206, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Harald Beyer B. & Rodrigo Vergara M., 2002. "Productivity and Economic Growth: the Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 174, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Education and Economic Growth in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 289, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jorge Marshall R., 2002. "El Camino de las Reformas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(1), pages 77-82, April. [Downloadable!]
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