Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy
AbstractTrend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, measuring these variables is no easy task. This paper proposes two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factorproductivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. Finally, a compared analysis is made of the difficulties of each methodology, using it to construct output gap and potential growth measures for Chile.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.
Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Other versions of this item:
- Gabriel Contreras & Pablo García, 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 15, pages 523-554 Central Bank of Chile.
- Gabriela Contreras M & Pablo García S, 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 165, Central Bank of Chile.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649 Central Bank of Chile.
- Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
- Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006.
"Chile's Economic Growth,"
Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía,
Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48.
- Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
- Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Sources of Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 287, Central Bank of Chile.
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