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Exportdiversifizierung und Wirtschaftswachstum in Chile: eine ökonometrische Analyse

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  • Dierk Herzer

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Abstract

Entwicklungsländern wird seit drei Jahrzehnten die Diversifizierung ihrer Exportstruktur empfohlen. Exportdiversifizierung soll nachhaltiges Wachstum ermöglichen und eine Verringerung der wirtschaftlichen Instabilität durch den Abbau wachstumshemmender Einflussfaktoren herbeiführen. Der Zusammenhang zwischen Exportdiversifizierung und Wachstum ist empirisch bis heute jedoch kaum erforscht. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird mit zeitreihenanalytischen Verfahren untersucht, ob die Diversification-led growth-Hypothese für Chile im Zeitraum von 1962 bis 2001 gerechtfertigt werden kann. Ausgangspunkt der Analyse sind Einheitswurzeltests, die auch bei a priori nicht bekannten Strukturbrüchen anwendbar sind. Anschließend wird die Technik kointegrierter Prozesse verwendet: Der Test auf Kointegration erfolgt auf Basis der Trace-Statistik des Johansen-Verfahrens. Zusätzlich wird das einstufige Fehlerkorrekurmodell von Stock eingesetzt. Die Evidenz für die Annahme eines langfristigen Zusammenhangs zwischen dem Grad der Exportdiversifizierung und der Höhe des chilenischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird mit der DOLS-Prozedur überprüft. Es zeigt sich, dass die Exportdiversifizierung einen starken Einfluss auf die chilenische Inlandsproduktion hat. Die Ergebnisse sprechen für die Hypothese, wonach eine Exportdiversifizierung über Learningby- exporting- und Learning-by-doing-Externalitäten ein wirtschaftliches Wachstum herbeizuführen vermag.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research in its series Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers with number 098.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:098

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Keywords: Exportdifersifizierung; Wirtschaftswachstum; Chile;

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Allan W. Gregory, 1991. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Working Papers 811, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
  5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  6. Fahim Al-Marhubi, 2000. "Export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 559-562.
  7. Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, Sheila & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Export diversification and structural dynamics in the growth process: The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 375-391, April.
  8. Daniel Lederman & William Maloney, 2002. "Open Questions about the Link Between Natural Resources and Economic Growth: Sachs and Warner Revisited," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 141, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  10. George Kapetanios, 2002. "Unit Root Testing against the Alternative Hypothesis of up to m Structural Breaks," Working Papers 469, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  11. Young, Alwyn, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405, May.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  13. Denise Stanley & Sirima Bunnag, 2001. "A new look at the benefits of diversification: lessons from Central America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(11), pages 1369-1383.
  14. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  15. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile’s Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 365, Central Bank of Chile.

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