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Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy

In: Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles

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  • Gabriel Contreras

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Pablo García

    (Banco Central de Chile)

Abstract

Trend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, measuring these variables is no easy task. This paper proposes two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factorproductivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. Finally, a compared analysis is made of the difficulties of each methodology, using it to construct output gap and potential growth measures for Chile.
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Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Contreras & Pablo García, 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 15, pages 523-554, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v06c15pp523-554
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Carlos José García T. & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2003. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Trough in Chile," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 69-88, January-J.
    3. Patricio Rojas & Eduardo López & Susana Jiménez, 1997. "Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Rómulo A.Chumacero & Francisco A.Gallego, 2002. "Trends and cycles in real-time," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 211-229, December.
    5. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July.
    2. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 613-633, December.
    3. Camila Figueroa & Jorge Fornero & Pablo García, 2019. "Hindsight vs. Real time measurement of the output gap: Implications for the Phillips curve in the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 854, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
    5. Claudio Candia & Medardo Aguirre & Natalia Correa & María J. Herrera, 2016. "La productividad total de factores en el sector manufacturero chileno," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(35), pages 229-255, July-Dece.
    6. Arturo Antón-Sarabia, 2008. "El problema al final de la muestra en la estimación del PIB potencial," Working papers DTE 442, CIDE, División de Economía.
    7. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48.
    8. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Sources of Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 287, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Chile: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/292, International Monetary Fund.

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