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Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy

In: Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles

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Author Info

  • Gabriel Contreras

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Pablo García

    (Banco Central de Chile)

Abstract

Trend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, the measurement of these variables is plagued with difficulties. In this paper we propose two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. We compare the difficulties in using each methodology, and we use them to construct measures of the output gap and potential growth for Chile

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, , chapter 15, pages 523-554, 2002.

This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v06c15pp523-554.

Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v06c15pp523-554

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References

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  1. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Rómulo A.Chumacero & Francisco A.Gallego, 2002. "Trends and cycles in real-time," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 211-229, December.
  3. Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649 Central Bank of Chile.
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Cited by:
  1. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Sources of Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 287, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48.
  3. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.

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