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Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy

In: Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles

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  • Gabriel Contreras

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Pablo García

    (Banco Central de Chile)

Abstract

Trend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, measuring these variables is no easy task. This paper proposes two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factorproductivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. Finally, a compared analysis is made of the difficulties of each methodology, using it to construct output gap and potential growth measures for Chile.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, , chapter 15, pages 523-554, 2002.

This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v06c15pp523-554.

Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v06c15pp523-554

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References

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  1. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Francisco A. Gallego, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Real-Time," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 130, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Patricio Rojas & Eduardo López & Susana Jiménez, 1997. "Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649 Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48.
  2. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
  3. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No Linealidades en la Regla de Política Monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: Una Evidencia Empírica," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines inv173, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  4. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Sources of Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 287, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, Springer, vol. 140(4), pages 613-633, December.

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