Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy
In: Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles
AbstractTrend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, the measurement of these variables is plagued with difficulties. In this paper we propose two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. We compare the difficulties in using each methodology, and we use them to construct measures of the output gap and potential growth for Chile
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This chapter was published in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, , chapter 15, pages 523-554, 2002.
This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v06c15pp523-554.
Other versions of this item:
- Gabriela Contreras M. & Pablo García S., 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 37-55, August.
- Gabriela Contreras M & Pablo García S, 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 165, Central Bank of Chile.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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"Trends and cycles in real-time,"
Estudios de Economia,
University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 211-229, December.
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- Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649 Central Bank of Chile.
- Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Sources of Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 287, Central Bank of Chile.
- Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006.
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Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48.
- Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
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