Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An Institutional Risk Analysis of the Kazakh Economy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Oliver Röhn
  • Sultan Orazbayev
  • Aslan Sarinzhipov

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of institutions or structural policies on the volatilityof income or GDP per capita in transition countries and in Kazakhstan in particular. Inthe first part of the paper we compare Kazakhstan’s institutional framework with othertransition economies based on a broad range of indicators. Using factor analytical toolsto reduce the dimensionality of the indicator space we find that in general Kazakhstan’sinstitutional quality ranks among the lowest of the 24 transition countries investigated.Reform progress was mainly achieved in infrastructure. In the second part of the paperwe employ state-of-the-art Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to identify institutionaland macroeconomic policy areas that have the strongest impact on output volatility intransition economies. The analysis shows that good legal and administrative institutionscan help smooth output volatility. Moreover, we also find that inflation and currentaccount volatility and to a smaller extend exchange rate fluctuations are importantdeterminants of output volatility.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-Ifo_Working_Papers/wp-ifo-2005-2010/IfoWorkingPaper-70.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 70.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_70

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Email:
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Institutions; output volatility; development; transitions economies; model uncertainty; Bayesian Model Averaging;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
  2. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Adeel Malik & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2005. "The Geography of Output Volatility," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics WPS/2005-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  6. Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, . "Benchmark priors for Bayesian Model averaging," Working Papers 98-06, FEDEA.
  7. Beck, Thorsten & Laeven, Luc, 2005. "Institution building and growth in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 3657, The World Bank.
  8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  9. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  11. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing 226, OECD Publishing.
  12. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.