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Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?

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Author Info
Giandomenico Piluso ()
Roberto Ricciuti ()

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Abstract

This paper analyses the relations between the banking system fluctuations, on one hand, and taxation and public spending, on the other one, using a VECM methodology. We find some evidence of prociclicality of fiscal policy using variables such as government spending, taxes, and primary surplus. Effects in the opposite direction are much smaller. Results are quite stable over time.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2442.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2442

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Related research
Keywords: credit cycles; fiscal policy; procyclicality;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Carlo Brambilla & Giandomenico Piluso, 2007. "Are Banks Procyclical? Evidence from the Italian Case (1890-1973)," Department of Economics University of Siena 523, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bordo, Michael D. & Dueker, Michael J. & Wheelock, David C., 2003. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 143-169, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    Other versions:
  4. Mario Quagliariello, . "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  9. Ugo Albertazzi & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2006. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 601, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Roberto Ricciuti, 2008. "The quest for a fiscal rule: Italy, 1861–1998," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 2(3), pages 259-274, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2005. "The growth of the Italian economy, 1861 1913: Preliminary second-generation estimates," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 273-312, December. [Downloadable!]
  14. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Marco & Gallegati, Mauro, 2005. "On the nature and causes of business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 81-100, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Riccardo De Bonis & Massimiliano Stacchini, 2009. "What determines the size of bank loans in industrialized countries? The role of government debt," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 707, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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