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Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?

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  • Giandomenico Piluso
  • Roberto Ricciuti

Abstract

This paper analyses the relations between the banking system fluctuations, on one hand, and taxation and public spending, on the other one, using a VECM methodology. We find some evidence of prociclicality of fiscal policy using variables such as government spending, taxes, and primary surplus. Effects in the opposite direction are much smaller. Results are quite stable over time.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-10/cesifo1_wp2442.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2442.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2442

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Related research

Keywords: credit cycles; fiscal policy; procyclicality;

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References

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  1. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
  3. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "BanksÂ’ Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Carlo Brambilla & Giandomenico Piluso, 2007. "Are Banks Procyclical? Evidence from the Italian Case (1890-1973)," Department of Economics University of Siena 523, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  5. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann & Miguel Segoviano, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
  6. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Working Papers 2001-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  9. Bernauer Thomas & Koubi Vally, 2004. "Banking Crisis vs. Credit Crunch? A Cross-Country Comparison of Policy Responses to Dilemmas in Banking Regulation," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-24, August.
  10. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2005. "The growth of the Italian economy, 1861 1913: Preliminary second-generation estimates," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 273-312, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Riccardo De Bonis & Massimiliano Stacchini, 2009. "What determines the size of bank loans in industrialized countries? The role of government debt," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 707, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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