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Credit Cycles, Credit Risk and Countercyclical Loan Provisions

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  • Martha López

    ()

  • Fernando Tenjo Galarza

    ()

  • Hector Zárate

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the impact of rapid credit growth on ex ante credit risk. We present micro-econometric evidence of the positive relationship between rapid credit growth and deterioration in lending portfolios: Loans granted during boom periods have higher probability of default than those granted during periods of slow credit growth. In addition, given their importance for macroprudential policy, we evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of the countercyclical loan provisions. We find a negative relationship between the amplitude of credit cycles and this kind of macroprudential tool.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 011092.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 05 Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011092

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Keywords: Ex ante credit risk; credit cycles; countercyclical provisioning;

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  1. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
  2. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  3. Carlson, Mark & Shan, Hui & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "Capital ratios and bank lending: A matched bank approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 663-687.
  4. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2009. "Bank risk and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1075, European Central Bank.
  5. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
  6. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," Working papers 95-1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
  8. Piti Disyatat, 2010. "The bank lending channel revisited," BIS Working Papers 297, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Morrison, Alan & White, Lucy, 2004. "Crises and Capital Requirements in Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 4364, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  11. Martha López & Juan David Prada & Norberto Rodríguez, 2009. "Evidence for a Financial Accelerator in a Small Open Economy,and Implications for Monetary Policy," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  12. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  13. Martha López & Fernando Tenjo & Héctor Zárate, 2012. "The Risk-taking Channel in Colombia Revisited," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  14. Nada Mora & Andrew Logan, 2012. "Shocks to bank capital: evidence from UK banks at home and away," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1103-1119, March.
  15. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2009. "Monetary policy and the risk-taking channel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
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