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Credit Cycles, Credit Risk and Countercyclical Loan Provisions

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  • Martha López

    ()

  • Fernando Tenjo Galarza

    ()

  • Hector Zárate

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the impact of rapid credit growth on ex ante credit risk. We present micro-econometric evidence of the positive relationship between rapid credit growth and deterioration in lending portfolios: Loans granted during boom periods have higher probability of default than those granted during periods of slow credit growth. In addition, given their importance for macroprudential policy, we evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of the countercyclical loan provisions. We find a negative relationship between the amplitude of credit cycles and this kind of macroprudential tool.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 011092.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 05 Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011092

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Keywords: Ex ante credit risk; credit cycles; countercyclical provisioning;

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  1. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  2. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
  3. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
  4. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  5. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics 95-1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Mora, Nada & Logan, Andrew, 2010. "Shocks to bank capital: evidence from UK banks at home and away," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 387, Bank of England.
  7. Martha López & Fernando Tenjo & Héctor Zárate, 2012. "The Risk-Taking Channel in Colombia Revisited," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009313, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
  9. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Carlson, Mark & Shan, Hui & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "Capital ratios and bank lending: A matched bank approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 663-687.
  11. Lucy White & Alan D. Morrison, 2002. "Crises and Capital Requirements in Banking," OFRC Working Papers Series, Oxford Financial Research Centre 2002fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  12. Piti Disyatat, 2010. "The bank lending channel revisited," BIS Working Papers 297, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2009. "Monetary policy and the risk-taking channel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  14. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2009. "Bank risk and monetary policy," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1075, European Central Bank.
  15. Martha López & Juan David Prada & Norberto Rodríguez, 2009. "Evidence for a Financial Accelerator in a Small Open Economy,and Implications for Monetary Policy," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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