Predicting the Geography of House Prices
AbstractPrediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate shortterm ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE in its series SERC Discussion Papers with number 0045.
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/publications/default.asp
new economic geography; real estate prices; spatial econometrics; panel data; prediction;
Other versions of this item:
- Fingleton, Bernard, 2010. "Predicting the Geography of House Prices," MPRA Paper 21113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bernard Fingleton, 2010. "Predicting the geography of house prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33507, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
- R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2010-11-20 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2010-11-20 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2007.
"A Monte Carlo Study for Pure and Pretest Estimators of a Panel Data Model with Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbances,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
98, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Badi H. BALTAGI & Peter EGGER & Michael PFAFFERMAYR, 2007. "A Monte Carlo Study for Pure and Pretest Estimators of a Panel Data Model with Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbances," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 87-88, pages 11-38.
- H Garretsen & M. Schramm & S. Brakman, 2003.
"The Strategic Bombing of German Cities during World War II and its Impact for Germany,"
03-08, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The Spatial Distribution of Wages: Estimating the Helpman-Hanson Model for Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 437-466.
- Gordon H. Hanson, 1998.
"Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration,"
NBER Working Papers
6429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
- Hanson, G.H., 1999. "`Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," Working Papers 439, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006.
"Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
- Bernard Fingleton, 2008.
"Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
33150, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Prediction Using Panel Data Regression with Spatial Random Effects," SERC Discussion Papers 0007, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Song, Seuck Heun & Koh, Won, 2003.
"Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 123-150, November.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Won Koh, 2002. "Testing Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- G�ran Therborn & K.C. Ho, 2009. "Introduction," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-62, March.
- Kristian Behrens & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2009. "Krugman's "Papers in Regional Science": The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well-deserved," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 467-489, 06.
- Mutl, Jan & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2008. "The Spatial Random Effects and the Spatial Fixed Effects Model. The Hausman Test in a Cliff and Ord Panel Model," Economics Series 229, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
- Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
- Mario Larch & Janette Walde, 2009. "Finite sample properties of alternative GMM estimators for random effects models with spatially correlated errors," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 473-490, June.
- Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "A Generalized Method of Moments Estimator for a Spatial Panel Model with an Endogenous Spatial Lag and Spatial Moving Average Errors," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 27-44.
- Bernard Fingleton, 2005. "Towards applied geographical economics: modelling relative wage rates, incomes and prices for the regions of Great Britain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2417-2428.
- Mark D. Partridge, 2005. "Does Income Distribution Affect U.S. State Economic Growth?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 363-394.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Bernard Fingleton & Alain Pirotte, 2011.
"Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model,"
SERC Discussion Papers
0095, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Bernard Fingleton & Alain Pirotte, 2012. "Estimating and Forecasting With A Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 149, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Fingleton, Bernard & Palombi, Silvia, 2013. "Spatial panel data estimation, counterfactual predictions, and local economic resilience among British towns in the Victorian era," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 649-660.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.