In this paper, I examine the relationship between increasing returns to scale and the geographic concentration of economic activity. Using data on U.S. counties, I estimate the structural parameters of the Krugman (1991) model of economic geography. The specification I use, which is derived from the equilibrium conditions of the model, resembles a spatial labor demand function as it is proximity to consumer markets tha determines nominal wages and employment in a given location. Parameter estimates show support for small but significant scale economies; the estimated price-marginal cost ratio is 1.1 in 1980 and 1.2 in 1990. The parameter estimatines also suggest that geographic concentration is a stable feature of the spatial distribution of economic activity. As a prelude to the analysis, I estimate a reduced form of the Krugman model which approximates Harris' (1954) market-potential function. The estimation results show how far demand linkages extend across space and how shocks to income in one location affect wages and employment in other locations. Demand linkages between regions are strong and growing over time, but limited in geographic scope. Simulations based on parameter estimates suggest that a 10% fall in personal income for a region the size of Illinois reduces employment by 6.0-6.4% in counties that are 100 km in distance, with effects declining to zero for counties more than 800 km in distance. The results are consistent with a high volume of trade within cities and between proximate cities.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
6429.
Length: Date of creation: Feb 1998 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6429
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992.
"Growth in Cities,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-52, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991.
"Growth in Cities,"
NBER Working Papers
3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Duncan Black & Vernon Henderson, 1997.
"Urban Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
6008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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