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Competing models of global dynamics: Evidence from panel models with spatially correlated error components

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  • Fingleton, Bernard

Abstract

This paper considers two competing theories with differing implications for the long run dynamics of the global economy, neoclassical theory, implying conditional convergence, and New Economic Geography, implying multiple equilibria. These rival non-nested hypotheses are combined within an artificial nesting, panel data, model, embodying a spatial autoregressive error process allowing for unmodelled inter-country heterogeneity and spatially dependent errors, and tested using a panel of 77 countries over the years 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000. The New Economic Geography theory is shown to have superior explanatory power, but it also introduces some significant problems of estimation and measurement.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 25 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 542-558

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:3:p:542-558

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Cited by:
  1. Maza, Adolfo & Hierro, María & Villaverde, José, 2012. "Income distribution dynamics across European regions: Re-examining the role of space," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2632-2640.
  2. Arbia, Giuseppe & Battisti, Michele & Di Vaio, Gianfranco, 2010. "Institutions and geography: Empirical test of spatial growth models for European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 12-21, January.
  3. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "Gravity, market potential and development," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  4. Marco Crocco & Fabiana Santos & Pedro Amaral, 2009. "The spatial structure of the financial development in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td361, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  5. Pedro Vasconcelos Amaral & Mauro Borges Lemos & Rodrigo Ferreira Simões & Flávia Chein Feres, 2007. "Regional imbalances and market potential in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td324, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  6. Dusan Paredes, 2012. "Alternative theories for explaining the spatial wage inequality: a multilevel competition among human capital, NEG and amenities," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 20, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2012.
  7. Roberts, Mark & Deichmann, Uwe & Fingleton, Bernard & Shi, Tuo, 2010. "On the road to prosperity ? The economic geography of China's national expressway network," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5479, The World Bank.

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