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Weather Effects on European Agricultural Output 1850-1913

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Abstract

This paper compares the effects of weather shocks on agricultural production in Britain, France and Germany during the late nineteenth century. Using semi- parametric models to estimate the non-linear agro-weather relationship, we find that weather shocks explain between one and two-thirds of variations in agricultural production. Given the large size of the agricultural sector during this period, the high variance of agricultural production and the cyclical nature of weather shocks, the agro-weather relationship transmitted large effects on macroeconomic fluctuations over much of the period.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/wp9915.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 9915.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9915

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Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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Keywords: Agriculture; Weather effects; Economic history; Economic fluctuations; Semi- parametric methods;

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  1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
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Cited by:
  1. Piet Rietveld & Erhan Demirel & Jos van Ommeren, 2011. "Coping with uncertainty in the inland navigation market: the impact of climate change," ERSA conference papers ersa11p85, European Regional Science Association.
  2. Ruben Durante, 2010. "Risk, Cooperation and the Economic origins of social Trust: an empirical Investigation," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.
  3. Mirzabaev, Alisher & Tsegai, Daniel W., 2012. "Effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia," Discussion Papers 140769, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  4. Joseph Davis & Vanguard Group; Christopher Hanes, 2004. "Primary Sector Shocks and Early American Industrialization," 2004 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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