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Weather Effects on European Agricultural Output 1850-1913

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Abstract

This paper compares the effects of weather shocks on agricultural production in Britain, France and Germany during the late nineteenth century. Using semi- parametric models to estimate the non-linear agro-weather relationship, we find that weather shocks explain between one and two-thirds of variations in agricultural production. Given the large size of the agricultural sector during this period, the high variance of agricultural production and the cyclical nature of weather shocks, the agro-weather relationship transmitted large effects on macroeconomic fluctuations over much of the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Solomou, S. & Wu, W., 1999. "Weather Effects on European Agricultural Output 1850-1913," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9915, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9915
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    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/wp9915.pdf
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    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Stead, 2004. "Risk and risk management in English agriculture, c. 1750–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 334-361, May.
    2. François Facchini & Mickael Melki, 2014. "Political Ideology And Economic Growth: Evidence From The French Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 1408-1426, October.
    3. Chinnadurai Kathiravan & Murugesan Selvam & Desti Kannaiah & Kasilingam Lingaraja & Vadivel Thanikachalam, 2019. "On the relationship between weather and Agricultural Commodity Index in India: a study with reference to Dhaanya of NCDEX," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 667-683, March.
    4. Piet Rietveld & Erhan Demirel & Jos van Ommeren, 2011. "Coping with uncertainty in the inland navigation market: the impact of climate change," ERSA conference papers ersa11p85, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Mirzabaev, Alisher & Tsegai, Daniel W., 2012. "Effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia," Discussion Papers 140769, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    6. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2020. "The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way," NBER Working Papers 26929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Weather effects; Economic history; Economic fluctuations; Semi- parametric methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • N54 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Europe: 1913-

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