IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26929.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way

Author

Listed:
  • Amanda Guimbeau
  • Nidhiya Menon
  • Aldo Musacchio

Abstract

We analyze the repercussions of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on demographic measures, human capital formation, and productivity markers in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil's financial center and the most populous city in South America today. Leveraging temporal and spatial variation in district-level estimates of influenza-related deaths for the period 1917-1920 combined with a unique database on socio-economic, health and productivity outcomes constructed from historical and contemporary documents for all districts in Sao Paulo, we find that the 1918 Influenza pandemic had significant negative impacts on infant mortality and sex ratios at birth in 1920 (the short-run). We find robust evidence of persistent effects on health, educational attainment and productivity more than twenty years later. Our study highlights the importance of documenting the legacy of historical shocks in understanding the development trajectories of countries over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2020. "The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way," NBER Working Papers 26929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26929
    Note: DAE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26929.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elise Huillery, 2009. "History Matters: The Long-Term Impact of Colonial Public Investments in French West Africa," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 176-215, April.
    2. Rudi Rocha & Claudio Ferraz & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2017. "Human Capital Persistence and Development," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 105-136, October.
    3. Clay, Karen & Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2018. "Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1179-1209, December.
    4. Currie, Janet & Stabile, Mark, 2006. "Child mental health and human capital accumulation: The case of ADHD," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1094-1118, November.
    5. Marcella Alsan, 2015. "The Effect of the TseTse Fly on African Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 382-410, January.
    6. Louis Putterman & David N. Weil, 2010. "Post-1500 Population Flows and The Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1627-1682.
    7. Douglas Almond, 2006. "Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 672-712, August.
    8. Musacchio, Aldo & Fritscher, André Martínez & Viarengo, Martina, 2014. "Colonial Institutions, Trade Shocks, and the Diffusion of Elementary Education in Brazil, 1889–1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 730-766, September.
    9. Lin, Ming-Jen & Liu, Elaine M., 2014. "Does in utero exposure to Illness matter? The 1918 influenza epidemic in Taiwan as a natural experiment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-163.
    10. Marco Percoco, 2016. "Health Shocks and Human Capital Accumulation: The Case of Spanish Flu in Italian Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1496-1508, September.
    11. Slusky, David J.G. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2021. "Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    12. C. Justin Cook & Jason M. Fletcher & Angela Forgues, 2019. "Multigenerational Effects of Early-Life Health Shocks," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1855-1874, October.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10262 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. John Parman, 2013. "Childhood Health and Sibling Outcomes: The Shared Burden and Benefit of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 19505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. W Walker Hanlon, 2020. "Coal Smoke, City Growth, and the Costs of the Industrial Revolution," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(626), pages 462-488.
    17. Richter, André & Robling, Per Olof, 2013. "Multigenerational e ffects of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Working Paper Series 5/2013, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    18. Sanders, Nicholas J. & Stoecker, Charles, 2015. "Where have all the young men gone? Using sex ratios to measure fetal death rates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    19. Janet Currie, 2009. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 87-122, March.
    20. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2016. "Long-Term Persistence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1401-1436, December.
    21. Amar Hamoudi & Jenna Nobles, 2014. "Do Daughters Really Cause Divorce? Stress, Pregnancy, and Family Composition," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1423-1449, August.
    22. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
    23. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    24. Darwyn Kobasa & Ayato Takada & Kyoko Shinya & Masato Hatta & Peter Halfmann & Steven Theriault & Hiroshi Suzuki & Hidekazu Nishimura & Keiko Mitamura & Norio Sugaya & Taichi Usui & Takeomi Murata & Ya, 2004. "Enhanced virulence of influenza A viruses with the haemagglutinin of the 1918 pandemic virus," Nature, Nature, vol. 431(7009), pages 703-707, October.
    25. Clay, Karen & Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "What explains cross-city variation in mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic? Evidence from 438 U.S. cities," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 42-50.
    26. Solomou, Solomos & Wu, Weike, 1999. "Weather effects on European agricultural output, 1850–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, December.
    27. Brian Beach & W. Walker Hanlon, 2018. "Coal Smoke and Mortality in an Early Industrial Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(615), pages 2652-2675, November.
    28. Caruso, Germán & Miller, Sebastian, 2015. "Long run effects and intergenerational transmission of natural disasters: A case study on the 1970 Ancash Earthquake," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 134-150.
    29. Nathan Nunn & Leonard Wantchekon, 2011. "The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3221-3252, December.
    30. Hoyt Bleakley, 2010. "Malaria Eradication in the Americas: A Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-45, April.
    31. Melissa Dell, 2010. "The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 1863-1903, November.
    32. Yueh-Ming Loo & Michael Gale, 2007. "Fatal immunity and the 1918 virus," Nature, Nature, vol. 445(7125), pages 267-268, January.
    33. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    34. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116519.
    35. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10262 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Solomou, S. & Wu, W., 1999. "Weather Effects on European Agricultural Output 1850-1913," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9915, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    37. Richard E. Nelson, 2010. "Testing the Fetal Origins Hypothesis in a developing country: evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(10), pages 1181-1192, October.
    38. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Graziella Bertocchi & Arcangelo Dimico, 2020. "COVID-19, Race, and Redlining," Department of Economics 0175, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    2. Ilan Noy & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2023. "The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1192-1227, November.
    3. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow, 2020. "Is the Cure Worse than the Disease? County-Level Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States," NBER Working Papers 27759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Constantin Bürgi & Nisan Gorgulu, 2020. "Social Distancing and the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 8577, CESifo.
    5. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2021. "Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(2), pages 173-195, June.
    7. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2020. "COVID-19, Race, and Redlining," GLO Discussion Paper Series 603, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Mitchener, Kris & Esteves, Rui & Nencka, Peter & Thomasson, Melissa, 2022. "Do Pandemics Change Healthcare? Evidence from the Great Influenza," CEPR Discussion Papers 17666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Yu Pang, 2022. "A theory of fiscal policy response to an epidemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 2050-2071, September.
    11. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2020. "The causes and consequences of the 1918 influenza in South Africa," Working Papers 12/2020, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Jappelli, Tullio & Carillo, Mario Francesco, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    14. Benjamin Schneider & Hillary Vipond, 2023. "The Past and Future of Work: How History Can Inform the Age of Automation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10766, CESifo.
    15. Schneider, Benjamin & Vipond, Hillary, 2023. "The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation," Economic History Working Papers 119282, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    16. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    17. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 27066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Howard Bodenhorn, 2020. "Business in a Time of Spanish Influenza," NBER Working Papers 27495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kristian S. Blickle, 2020. "Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933," Staff Reports 921, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Michael Lokshin & Iván Torre, 2021. "The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 551-573, October.
    21. Masato Shizume, 2022. "The Great Influenza Pandemic in Japan: Policy Responses and Socioeconomic Consequences," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2022.
    22. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2022. "Short‐ and medium‐run health and literacy impacts of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic in Brazil," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 997-1025, November.
    2. Nunn, Nathan, 2014. "Historical Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 347-402, Elsevier.
    3. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Leonardo M. Klüppel & Lamar Pierce & Jason A. Snyder, 2018. "Perspective—The Deep Historical Roots of Organization and Strategy: Traumatic Shocks, Culture, and Institutions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 702-721, August.
    5. Fenske, James, 2015. "African polygamy: Past and present," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 58-73.
    6. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    7. Natkhov, Timur, 2015. "Colonization and development: The long-term effect of Russian settlement in the North Caucasus, 1890s–2000s," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-97.
    8. Litina, Anastasia, 2012. "Unfavorable land endowment, cooperation, and reversal of fortune," MPRA Paper 39702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ilan Noy & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2023. "The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1192-1227, November.
    10. Pritha Dev & Blessing U. Mberu & Roland Pongou, 2016. "Ethnic Inequality: Theory and Evidence from Formal Education in Nigeria," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 603-660.
    11. Maseland, Robbert, 2021. "Contingent determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Bengtsson, Tommy & Helgertz, Jonas, 2015. "The Long Lasting Influenza: The Impact of Fetal Stress during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Socioeconomic Attainment and Health in Sweden 1968-2012," IZA Discussion Papers 9327, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2020. "Historical Legacies and African Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 53-128, March.
    14. Papaioannou, Elias & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2010. "Divide and Rule or the Rule of the Divided? Evidence from Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Arnstein Aassve & Guido Alfani & Francesco Gandolfi & Marco Le Moglie, 2021. "Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 840-857, April.
    16. Blanca Sánchez‐Alonso, 2019. "The age of mass migration in Latin America," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(1), pages 3-31, February.
    17. Richard Franke, 2022. "Poverty, pollution, and mortality: The 1918 influenza pandemic in a developing German economy," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1026-1053, November.
    18. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.
    19. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2020. "Malaria suitability, urbanization and subnational development in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Emilio Depetris†Chauvin & David N. Weil, 2018. "Malaria and Early African Development: Evidence from the Sickle Cell Trait," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1207-1234, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.