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Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza

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  • Yothin Jinjarak
  • Ilan Noy
  • Quy Ta

Abstract

We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with declines in consumption (-1.9%), investment (-1.2%), output (-2.4%), and productivity (-1.9%). Our main findings highlight the role of both negative demand-side and supply-side shocks in the flu pandemic’s aftermath.

Suggested Citation

  • Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2020. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," CESifo Working Paper Series 8672, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8672
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Yu Pang, 2022. "A theory of fiscal policy response to an epidemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 2050-2071, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output loss; productivity; pandemics; Hong Kong Flu; H3N2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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