IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v165y2021ics0040162521000093.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of COVID-19 on the European football ecosystem – A Delphi-based scenario analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Beiderbeck, Daniel
  • Frevel, Nicolas
  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.
  • Schmidt, Sascha L.
  • Schweitzer, Vera M.

Abstract

COVID-19 has had a tremendous impact on the world's society and economy. This also applies to European football; the continent's largest professional sports ecosystem has millions of employees in football-related jobs and even more people emotionally attached to the sport. To account for stakeholders' unprecedented level of uncertainty regarding regulatory, economic, social, and technological implications for their business, we systematically examine how COVID-19 will impact the future of the European football ecosystem in the short, medium and long term. We present a Delphi-based scenario analysis with 110 subject matter experts who assessed 15 future projections both on a quantitative and qualitative basis. We find that, for example, a salary cap for players would have the highest impact on the ecosystem, but it is unlikely to be implemented, while an increased awareness for social responsibility would be the most desirable effect of the crisis. To refine the results, we account for surface-level and deep-level characteristics of participants and find significant effects in both cases. We identify three different clusters of projections and discuss the potential threats and opportunities of COVID-19 for the European football ecosystem to contribute to the scientific discussion and to provide guidance for policy- and decision-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Beiderbeck, Daniel & Frevel, Nicolas & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schweitzer, Vera M., 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the European football ecosystem – A Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:165:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521000093
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120577
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521000093
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120577?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominik Schreyer, 2019. "Football spectator no-show behaviour in the German Bundesliga," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4882-4901, September.
    2. Yuya Katafuchi & Kenichi Kurita & Shunsuke Managi, 2021. "COVID-19 with Stigma: Theory and Evidence from Mobility Data," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-95, April.
    3. Stefan Késenne, 2000. "The Impact of Salary Caps in Professional Team Sports," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(4), pages 422-430, September.
    4. Ulrich Schimmack, 2008. "Measuring Wellbeing in the SOEP," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 145, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Wladimir Andreff, 2007. "French Football: A Financial Crisis Rooted in Weak Governance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00270019, HAL.
    6. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2022. "Eliminating supportive crowds reduces referee bias," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1416-1436, July.
    7. Warth, Johannes & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2013. "A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 566-583.
    8. Ozili, Peterson & Arun, Thankom, 2020. "Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy," MPRA Paper 99317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Wladimir Andreff, 2007. "French Football: A Financial Crisis Rooted in Weak Governance," Post-Print halshs-00270019, HAL.
    10. Kenichi Kurita & Shunsuke Managi, 2022. "COVID-19 and Stigma: Evolution of Self-restraint Behavior," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 168-182, March.
    11. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    12. Bañuls, Victor A. & Turoff, Murray & Hiltz, Starr Roxanne, 2013. "Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1756-1774.
    13. Burton, Laura J., 2015. "Underrepresentation of women in sport leadership: A review of research," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 155-165.
    14. Jiang, Ruth & Kleer, Robin & Piller, Frank T., 2017. "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 84-97.
    15. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2010. "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 46-59, September.
    16. Aengenheyster, Stefan & Cuhls, Kerstin & Gerhold, Lars & Heiskanen-Schüttler, Maria & Huck, Jana & Muszynska, Monika, 2017. "Real-Time Delphi in practice — A comparative analysis of existing software-based tools," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 15-27.
    17. Amory Martin & Maryia Markhvida & Stéphane Hallegatte & Brian Walsh, 2020. "Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 453-479, October.
    18. Gordon, Adam Vigdor & Ramic, Mirza & Rohrbeck, René & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2020. "50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Kostas Selviaridis & Finn Wynstra, 2015. "Performance-based contracting: a literature review and future research directions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 3505-3540, June.
    20. Nakamura, Hiroki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Airport risk of importation and exportation of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 40-47.
    21. David Matesanz & Florian Holzmayer & Benno Torgler & Sascha L Schmidt & Guillermo J Ortega, 2018. "Transfer market activities and sportive performance in European first football leagues: A dynamic network approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, December.
    22. Marc Rohde & Christoph Breuer, 2016. "Europe’s Elite Football: Financial Growth, Sporting Success, Transfer Investment, and Private Majority Investors," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-20, June.
    23. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2021. "Stadium attendance demand during the COVID-19 crisis: early empirical evidence from Belarus," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(18), pages 1542-1547, October.
    24. Yoo, Sunbin & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Global mortality benefits of COVID-19 action," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    25. Belton, Ian & MacDonald, Alice & Wright, George & Hamlin, Iain, 2019. "Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 72-82.
    26. Flostrand, Andrew & Pitt, Leyland & Bridson, Shannon, 2020. "The Delphi technique in forecasting– A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    27. John Siegfried & Andrew Zimbalist, 2006. "The Economic Impact of Sports Facilities, Teams and Mega-Events," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 39(4), pages 420-427, December.
    28. Bryson, Alex & Dolton, Peter & Reade, J. James & Schreyer, Dominik & Singleton, Carl, 2020. "Experimental Effects of an Absent Crowd on Performances and Refereeing Decisions during COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13578, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    29. Ulrich Schimmack & Jürgen Schupp & Gert Wagner, 2008. "The Influence of Environment and Personality on the Affective and Cognitive Component of Subjective Well-being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 41-60, October.
    30. Buldú, Javier M. & Antequera, Daniel R. & Aguirre, Jacobo, 2020. "The resumption of sports competitions after COVID-19 lockdown: The case of the Spanish football league," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    31. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    32. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Echoes: what happens when football is played behind closed doors?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-14, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    33. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    34. Spickermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Martin & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection — Exploring diversity effects on response behaviour in foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 105-120.
    35. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
    36. Orkideh Gharehgozli & Peyman Nayebvali & Amir Gharehgozli & Zaman Zamanian, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Economic Output of the US Outbreak’s Epicenter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 561-573, October.
    37. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    38. Mauksch, Stefanie & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Gordon, Theodore J., 2020. "Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Di Domizio & Raul Caruso, 2021. "Analisi Economica E Prospettive Del Progetto "Super League"," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 17(1), pages 85-107, luglio.
    2. Nataly Palomino-Ruiz & Aldo Alvarez-Risco & Jeanet Guzman-Loayza & Oscar Mamani-Benito & Martín A. Vilela-Estrada & Víctor Serna-Alarcón & Shyla Del-Aguila-Arcentales & Jaime A. Yáñez & Christian R. M, 2022. "Job Insecurity According to the Mental Health of Workers in 25 Peruvian Cities during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Akartuna, Eray Arda & Johnson, Shane D. & Thornton, Amy, 2022. "Preventing the money laundering and terrorist financing risks of emerging technologies: An international policy Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Artur Grabowski, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown on the Activities of European Football Companies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 645-654.
    5. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Toma, Pierluigi & Campobasso, Francesco, 2023. "Using data analytics to capture the strategic and financial decision-making of Europe's top football club," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    7. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Beiderbeck, Daniel & Evans, Nicolas & Frevel, Nicolas & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2023. "The impact of technology on the future of football – A global Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    9. Severin J. S. Oeckl & Stephen Morrow, 2022. "CSR in Professional Football in Times of Crisis: New Ways in a Challenging New Normal," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-26, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Beiderbeck, Daniel & Evans, Nicolas & Frevel, Nicolas & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2023. "The impact of technology on the future of football – A global Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Tiberius, Victor & Gojowy, Robin & Dabić, Marina, 2022. "Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. SECUNDO, Giustina & MELE, Gioconda & VECCHIO, Pasquale Del & ELIA, Gianluca & MARGHERITA, Alessandro & NDOU, Valentina, 2021. "Threat or opportunity? A case study of digital-enabled redesign of entrepreneurship education in the COVID-19 emergency," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Berbel-Vera, Jose & Barrachina Palanca, Mercedes & Gonzalez-Sanchez, Maria Beatriz, 2022. "Key CDO functions for successful digital transformation: Insights from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    7. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Kijkasiwat, Ploypailin & Arunachalam, Murugesh & Hammami, Helmi, 2021. "Covid-19 health policy intervention and volatility of Asian capital markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Kenichi Kurita & Shunsuke Managi, 2022. "COVID-19 and Stigma: Evolution of Self-restraint Behavior," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 168-182, March.
    9. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Traverso, Silvio, 2021. "Robots and risk of COVID-19 workplace contagion: Evidence from Italy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Shareef, Mahmud A. & Dwivedi, Yogesh K. & Wright, Angela & Kumar, Vinod & Sharma, Sujeet K. & Rana, Nripendra P, 2021. "Lockdown and sustainability: An effective model of information and communication technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    11. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19-related media coverage on the return and volatility connectedness of cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    12. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    13. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    14. Thomas Gries & Wim Naudé, 2021. "Extreme Events, Entrepreneurial Start-Ups, and Innovation: Theoretical Conjectures," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 329-353, October.
    15. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    16. Gebhardt, Maximilian & Spieske, Alexander & Birkel, Hendrik, 2022. "The future of the circular economy and its effect on supply chain dependencies: Empirical evidence from a Delphi study," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    18. Liu, Ning & Chen, Zhuo & Bao, Guoxian, 2021. "Role of media coverage in mitigating COVID-19 transmission: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    19. Belhadi, Amine & Kamble, Sachin & Jabbour, Charbel Jose Chiappetta & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Ndubisi, Nelson Oly & Venkatesh, Mani, 2021. "Manufacturing and service supply chain resilience to the COVID-19 outbreak: Lessons learned from the automobile and airline industries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    20. Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, 2021. "Simulating the Long-Term Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Sustainability of the Population-Economy-Environment Nexus," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 415-430, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:165:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521000093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.