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Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025

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  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.
  • Darkow, Inga-Lena
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    Abstract

    The logistics services industry will be significantly affected by future developments throughout the world. Therefore, developing future scenarios is an important basis for long-term strategy development. Nevertheless, research exposes that there is a lack of awareness among logistics researchers and practitioners about future scenarios. In this paper, we apply scenario planning and present the findings of an extensive Delphi-based scenario study on the future of the logistics services industry in the year 2025. The major contribution of our research is the development of probable and unforeseen scenarios of the future which may provide a valuable basis for strategy development in the logistics services industry.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Production Economics.

    Volume (Year): 127 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (September)
    Pages: 46-59

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:127:y:2010:i:1:p:46-59

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe

    Related research

    Keywords: Future Scenario Delphi Strategy Logistics services industry;

    References

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    1. Bood, Robert & Postma, Theo, 1997. "Strategic learning with scenarios," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 633-647, December.
    2. Phelps, R. & Chan, C. & Kapsalis, S. C., 2001. "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 223-232, March.
    3. Bergman, Jukka & Viljainen, Satu & Kassi, Tuomo & Partanen, Jarmo & Laaksonen, Petteri, 2006. "Managing the exploration of new operational and strategic activities using the scenario method--assessing future capabilities in the field of electricity distribution industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 46-61, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hsieh, Ling-Feng & Huang, Yi-Chen, 2011. "New batch construction heuristics to optimise the performance of order picking systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 618-630, June.
    2. Liu, Dehai & Li, Hongyi & Wang, Weiguo & Dong, Yucheng, 2012. "Constructivism scenario evolutionary analysis of zero emission regional planning: A case of Qaidam Circular Economy Pilot Area in China," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 341-356.
    3. Dinwoodie, John & Tuck, Sarah & Rigot-Müller, Patrick, 2013. "Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 553-561.
    4. Linz, Marco, 2012. "Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 28-35.

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