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Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden

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  • Boberg-Fazlic, Nina
  • Ivets, Maryna
  • Karlsson, Martin
  • Nilsson, Therese

Abstract

What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors – including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects – contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.

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  • Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:43:y:2021:i:c:s1570677x21000447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101020
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