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The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-National Analysis

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  • Anna Matysiak
  • Tomas Sobotka
  • Daniele Vignoli

Abstract

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth affected fertility before and during the recent economic recession in Europe. To this end, we use data for 258 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states and Iceland. We apply three-level growth-curve models which allow for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change and handling hierarchically structured data. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase and that this relationship was significant at all ages. Fertility responded to worsening economic conditions especially in Southern Europe and in Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. two broad regions which were considerably affected by the recession and where welfare policies provided lowest support against poverty and unemployment

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Matysiak & Tomas Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2018. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-National Analysis," VID Working Papers 1802, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:1802
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "All-time low period fertility in Finland: drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Alessandra Trimarchi & Jan Bavel, 2020. "Partners’ Educational Characteristics and Fertility: Disentangling the Effects of Earning Potential and Unemployment Risk on Second Births," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 439-464, July.
    3. Annalisa Busetta & Daria Mendola & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(8), pages 185-218.
    4. Caroline Berghammer & Bernhard Riederer, 2018. "The Part-Time Revolution: Changes in the Parenthood Effect on Women’s Employment in Austria," VID Working Papers 1804, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Anelli, Massimo & Giuntella, Osea & Stella, Luca, 2019. "Robots, Labor Markets, and Family Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 12820, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Francesca Luppi & Bruno Arpino & Alessandro Rosina, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.
    7. Marina Zannella & Antonella Guarneri & Cinzia Castagnaro, 2019. "Leaving and Losing a Job After Childbearing in Italy: A Comparison Between 2005 and 2012," Review of European Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(4), pages 1-1, December.
    8. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    9. Anne Goujon & Claudia Reiter & Michaela Potancokova, 2018. "Religious Affiliations in Austria at the Provincial Level: Estimates for Vorarlberg, 2001-2018," VID Working Papers 1813, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    10. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

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    Keywords

    Fertility; economic uncertainty; economic recession; Europe; regional differences; unemployment.;
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