IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v154y2021i1d10.1007_s11205-020-02554-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Novelli

    (University of Bologna)

  • Alberto Cazzola

    (University of Bologna)

  • Aurora Angeli

    (University of Bologna)

  • Lucia Pasquini

    (University of Bologna)

Abstract

This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of the short-term fertility plans of Italian women and men living as couples, before and shortly after the onset of the 2007/2008 Great Recession, which may have affected their reproductive plans through a climate of rising economic uncertainty. Using multilevel models, we investigate how fertility intentions are related to the individual characteristics of the respondents and their partners as well as to changes in the economic context. The findings confirm that the Great Recession modified the determinants of short-term fertility intentions differently for women and men. Among the most relevant issues, we outline the importance of couples’ working conditions and the contextual labour market indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Novelli & Alberto Cazzola & Aurora Angeli & Lucia Pasquini, 2021. "Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-284, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:154:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-020-02554-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-020-02554-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-020-02554-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-020-02554-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i::p:s233-s255 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Emilia Bono & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2015. "Fertility and economic instability: the role of unemployment and job displacement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 463-478, April.
    3. Lorenzo Cappellari & Carlo Dell’Aringa & Marco Leonardi, 2012. "Temporary Employment, Job Flows and Productivity: A Tale of Two Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(562), pages 188-215, August.
    4. Francesca Modena & Fabio Sabatini, 2012. "I would if I could: precarious employment and childbearing intentions in Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 77-97, March.
    5. Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Theories on fertility intentions: a demographer’s perspective," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 37-45.
    6. Melinda Mills & Nicoletta Balbo, 2011. "The influence of the family network on the realisation of fertility intentions," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 179-206.
    7. Francesca Fiori & Francesca Rinesi & Antonella Pinnelli & Sabrina Prati, 2013. "Economic Insecurity and the Fertility Intentions of Italian Women with One Child," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(3), pages 373-413, June.
    8. Maria Rita Testa & Fabian Stephany, 2017. "The educational gradient of fertility intentions: a meta-analysis of European studies," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 293-330.
    9. Gunnar Andersson, 2000. "The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 293-333, December.
    10. Elizabeth Thomson, 1997. "Couple childbearing desires, intentions, and births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(3), pages 343-354, August.
    11. Melinda Mills & Katia Begall & Letizia Mencarini & Maria Letizia Tanturri, 2008. "Gender equity and fertility intentions in Italy and the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    12. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
    13. Sara Rica & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Career Planning in Spain: Do Fixed-term Contracts Delay Marriage and Parenthood?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 49-73, November.
    14. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2004. "On the Changing Correlation Between Fertility and Female Employment over Space and Time," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 35-62, March.
    15. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction," Post-Print hal-02081826, HAL.
    16. Butz, William P & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 318-328, June.
    17. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    18. Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
    19. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    20. Alessandro Rosina & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Couples’ First Child Intentions and Disagreement: An Analysis of the Italian Case [La concordance des intentions d’avoir un premier enfant dans le couple: Une analyse du cas italien]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 487-502, November.
    21. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria [Attitudes, normes et contrôle perçu du comportement: Une explication des intentions de fécondité en ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 439-465, November.
    22. Doris Hanappi & Valérie-Anne Ryser & Laura Bernardi & Jean-Marie Le Goff, 2017. "Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention–Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 381-407, July.
    23. Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, 2017. "A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1211-1239, October.
    24. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    25. Hill Kulu & Andres Vikat, 2007. "Fertility differences by housing type: an effect of housing conditions or of selective moves?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    26. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(28), pages 835-852.
    27. Elizabeth Thomson & Yvonne Brandreth, 1995. "Measuring fertility demand," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, February.
    28. Irena Kotowska & Janina Jóźwiak & Anna Matysiak & Anna Baranowska-Rataj, 2008. "Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(22), pages 795-854.
    29. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1102_0391 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Michaela R. Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    31. Mr. Martin Schindler, 2009. "The Italian Labor Market: Recent Trends, Institutions, and Reform Options," IMF Working Papers 2009/047, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Ariane Pailhé & Anne Solaz, 2012. "The influence of employment uncertainty on childbearing in France: A tempo or quantum effect?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(1), pages 1-40.
    33. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Maria Castiglioni & Alessandro Rosina, 2009. "Lowest-Low Fertility: Signs of a recovery in Italy?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(23), pages 681-718.
    34. Ina Berninger & Bernd Weiß & Michael Wagner, 2011. "On the links between employment, partnership quality, and the desire to have a first child," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(24), pages 579-610.
    35. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Daniele Vignoli & Valentina Tocchioni & Silvana Salvini, 2016. "Uncertain lives: Insights into the role of job precariousness in union formation in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(10), pages 253-282.
    37. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1102_0361 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    39. Tomáš Sobotka & Éva Beaujouan, 2014. "Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two-Child Family Ideal in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 391-419, September.
    40. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    41. Taryn W. Morrissey, 2017. "Child care and parent labor force participation: a review of the research literature," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, March.
    42. Aart C. Liefbroer, 2009. "Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective [Evolution des intentions en matière de taille de famille en début d’âge adulte: une approche biographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 363-386, November.
    43. Katia Begall & Melinda Mills, 2011. "The Impact of Subjective Work Control, Job Strain and Work–Family Conflict on Fertility Intentions: a European Comparison [L’impact sur les intentions de fécondité de la perception subjective de co," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 433-456, November.
    44. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    45. Hill Kulu & Andres Vikat, 2007. "Fertility differences by housing type," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(26), pages 775-802.
    46. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2014. "Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(23), pages 687-734.
    47. Marloes Lange & Maarten Wolbers & Maurice Gesthuizen & Wout Ultee, 2014. "The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 161-185, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. del Rosario de Fatima Juárez Carcaño, María & De Rose, Alessandra & Testa, Maria Rita, 2023. "The relationship between education and fertility preferences in Mexico: Lessons from Italy," SocArXiv cw8xd, Center for Open Science.
    2. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    3. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2022. "The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post‐Recession Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    4. Camilla Matera & Lars Dommermuth & Silvia Bacci & Bruno Bertaccini & Alessandra Minello & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 790-806, December.
    5. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2022. "Dismissed and newly planned babies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study of the motivations behind changes in fertility plans and behaviors in Italy," SocArXiv qpwba, Center for Open Science.
    6. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    2. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Annalisa Busetta & Daria Mendola & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(8), pages 185-218.
    4. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    5. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    6. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.
    7. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: The Causal Effect of Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_05, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    8. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    9. Doris Hanappi & Valérie-Anne Ryser & Laura Bernardi & Jean-Marie Le Goff, 2017. "Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention–Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 381-407, July.
    10. Arianna Gatta & Francesco Mattioli & Letizia Mencarini & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: Stability or Resilience?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    11. Susanne Fahlén & Livia Sz. Oláh, 2018. "Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(28), pages 795-834.
    12. Daniele Vignli & Letizia Mencarini & Giammarco Alderotti, 2018. "Is the Impact of Employment Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being?," Working Papers 114, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    13. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    14. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Schmitt, Christian, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty, precarious employment, and risk attitudes on the transition to parenthood," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 47, pages 1-1.
    16. Wolfgang Auer, 2018. "Empirical Essays on the Socioeconomic Consequences of Economic Uncertainty," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 79.
    17. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    18. Mengni Chen & Paul S. F. Yip, 2017. "The Discrepancy Between Ideal and Actual Parity in Hong Kong: Fertility Desire, Intention, and Behavior," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(4), pages 583-605, August.
    19. Chiara L. Comolli & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Spread-ing uncertainty, shrinking birth rates," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_08, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    20. Tatiana Karabchuk, 2020. "Job Instability and Fertility Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: Does Labor Market Legislation Matter?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 688(1), pages 225-245, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:154:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-020-02554-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.