Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: The Causal Effect of Narratives of the Future

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most middle-high income countries, and explanations have tended to focus on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future —i.e. socially conveyed imagined futures—play a potent role in directing individuals’ decision-making about childbearing. To assess this role, we conducted—for the first time in fertility intention research—a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 814) and Oslo (Norway, N = 876). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Then, each respondent was asked whether he/she intended to have a child in the next three years. Results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions. Moreover, when the actual condition at the macro (country context) or micro (labor-market status and characteristics) level was better-off, negative narratives of the future were most crucial; conversely, when the actual conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual economic situation and constraints: narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.