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Comportement du banquier central en environnement incertain

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  • Avouyi-Dovi, S.
  • Sahuc, J-G.

Abstract

Several recent papers are devoted to the examination of the central banker's behaviour in an uncertain economic environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker's point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as an illustration of their effects within an analytical framework. In particular, it shows that depending on the type of uncertainty and the choice of the selected loss function, the recommendations for monetary policy can be noticeably different. Retaining an ad hoc loss function - discretionary choice - in place of an endogenous loss function - choice consistent with the structural parameters - can involve considerable welfare losses.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 241.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:241

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Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Uncertainty ; Macroeconomic Model.;

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  1. Rudebusch, G. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," Papers 672, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
  4. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
  5. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  6. Kimura, Takeshi & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-431, February.
  7. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January.
  8. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," NBER Working Papers 10025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Malcolm D. Knight & Chair, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-371.
  10. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Richard Dennis, 2005. "Uncertainty and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov30.
  12. Muro, Kazunobu, 2007. "Individual preferences and the effect of uncertainty on irreversible investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 191-207, December.
  13. Walsh, Carl E., 2005. "Endogenous objectives and the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 889-911, July.
  14. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-39, March.
  15. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Parameter Uncertainty and the Central Bank's Objective Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 215, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. David Longworth, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 349-360.
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Cited by:
  1. Fève, P. & Matheron, J. & Sahuc, J-G., 2009. "Minimum Distance Estimation and Testing of DSGE Models from Structural VARs," Working papers 245, Banque de France.
  2. Monfort, A., 2009. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Asset and Surplus VaR Constraints," Working papers 251, Banque de France.

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