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Règles de politique monétaire en présence d’incertitude : Une synthèse

Author

Listed:
  • Hervé Le Bihan

    (Banque de France, Centre de recherche)

  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

    (Banque de France, Centre de recherche et EPEE, Université d’Evry-Val-d’Essonne)

Abstract

Cet article présente une synthèse de la littérature consacrée aux implications de l’incertitude pourla conduite de la politique monétaire. La littérature en question s’organise autour de deux principes fondateurs. Le principe d’équivalent-certain indique qu’une incertitude additive - en particulier une incertitude sur la mesure des variables - n’affecte pas la politique optimale de la banque centrale. Le principe de conservatime indique en revanche qu’en présence d’incertitude sur les mécanismes de transmission, la politique optimale tend à être plus prudente qu’en univers certain. Nous passons en revue une série de travaux récents, qui s’est attachée à nuancer et étendre sur les plans théorique et empirique ces deux principes.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Le Bihan & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2001. "Règles de politique monétaire en présence d’incertitude : Une synthèse," Documents de recherche 01-08, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:01-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2009. "Comportement du banquier central en environnement incertain," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(1), pages 119-142.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque centrale et l'Union monétaire européennes : les tribulations de la crédibilité," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 211-244.
    4. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conservatisme; équivalent-certain; incertitude; politique monétaire;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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