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Evidencia sobre las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional

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Author Info
Carlos Humberto Cardona
Adriana Pontón
Eduardo Sarmiento
Abstract

En el presente artículo se analizan las políticas desinflacionarias utilizadas para lograr el paso de inflación moderada a inflación de un dígito en nueve países cuya estructura es semejante a la colombiana y cuyo éxito desinflacionario ha sido sostenible. Estos son: Chile, Bolivia, Grecia, España, Portugal, Irlanda, Israel, Nueva Zelandia e Islandia. Además, para cada uno se utilizan dos criterios de análisis: Se identifica un episodio desinflacionario (según metodología de Ball) y se selecciona un año de quiebre en la inflación (según definición de los autores); así, se evalúa el comportamiento de políticas económicas durante el episodio desinflacionario, y antes y después del quiebre. Las políticas evaluadas son: control monetario, contracción de los salarios reales, disminución del déficit fiscal y revaluación del tipo de cambio. También se mide el costo de desinflar en términos del crecimiento del producto. Así mismo, se rozan aspectos de desarrollo institucional importantes en el logro de inflaciones bajas. Se compara el caso colombiano con respecto a estas políticas y se trata de responder porqué Colombia no ha logrado un dígito.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 102.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:102

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  1. Ball, Laurence, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 439-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1991. "The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 483-503, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1989. "Italy: The Real Effects of Inflation and Disinflation," Working Papers 71, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Adolfo Meisel R., 1996. "Why No Hyperinflation In Colombia? On The Determinants Of Stable Economic Policies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003780, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eijffinger, S. & van Keulen, M., 1994. "Central Bank Independence in Another Eleven Countries," Papers 9494, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  7. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1996. "The long-run costs of moderate inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 71-88. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Donald T. Brash, 1996. "Reducing inflation in New Zealand: some practical issues," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 123-138. [Downloadable!]
  11. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-1), pages 1-82. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mervyn King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91. [Downloadable!]
  13. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia," NBER Working Papers 0900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Jorge Roldos, 1994. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Working Papers 94/84, International Monetary Fund.
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