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Evidencia sobre las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional

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  • Carlos Humberto Cardona
  • Adriana Pontón
  • Eduardo Sarmiento
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    Abstract

    En el presente artículo se analizan las políticas desinflacionarias utilizadas para lograr el paso de inflación moderada a inflación de un dígito en nueve países cuya estructura es semejante a la colombiana y cuyo éxito desinflacionario ha sido sostenible. Estos son: Chile, Bolivia, Grecia, España, Portugal, Irlanda, Israel, Nueva Zelandia e Islandia. Además, para cada uno se utilizan dos criterios de análisis: Se identifica un episodio desinflacionario (según metodología de Ball) y se selecciona un año de quiebre en la inflación (según definición de los autores); así, se evalúa el comportamiento de políticas económicas durante el episodio desinflacionario, y antes y después del quiebre. Las políticas evaluadas son: control monetario, contracción de los salarios reales, disminución del déficit fiscal y revaluación del tipo de cambio. También se mide el costo de desinflar en términos del crecimiento del producto. Así mismo, se rozan aspectos de desarrollo institucional importantes en el logro de inflaciones bajas. Se compara el caso colombiano con respecto a estas políticas y se trata de responder porqué Colombia no ha logrado un dígito.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 102.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:102

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Keulen, M. van, 1994. "Central bank independence in another eleven countries," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 1994-94, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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    17. Adolfo Meisel R., 1996. "Why No Hyperinflation In Colombia? On The Determinants Of Stable Economic Policies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003780, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    18. Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1989. "Italy: The Real Effects of Inflation and Disinflation," Working Papers 71, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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