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Reflexiones Sobre Política Monetaria e "Inflación Objetivo" en Colombia

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  • Sergio Clavijo

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    Abstract

    El propósito de este documento es examinar la coyuntura macroeconómica con el fin de replantear una estrategia monetaria que pueda mantener inflaciones de un dígito, cuando quiera que la actividad económica se recupere, la tasa de desempleo regrese a sus niveles de largo plazo y se logre superar la debilidad del sistema financiero. Una buena opción es la profundizar el llamado sistema de "inflación objetivo" (inflation targeting),aprovechando la experiencia que han ganado en este frente países desarrollados (como Gran Bretaña o Canadá) o inclusive economías emergentes (Como Chile o Israel) a lo largo de los años noventa. Una condición básica para la aplicación de esta estrategia es romper la "dependencia fiscal" que ha mostrado el manejo monetario en los últimos años, a lo cual contribuirá la implantación exitosa del programa económico acordado con el Fondo Monetario Internacional. Hacia el futuro, la política monetaria y crediticia debe verse repotenciada gracias a la reciente adopción del régimen de flotación cambiaria.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 141.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:141

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    Keywords: Classification- JEL: Política Monetaria (E52); Banca Central (E58); Inflación (E31).;

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    1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, December.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos, 1999. "Inflation-target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 46-58.
    4. Guy Debelle & Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Issues, International Monetary Fund 15, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carlos Humberto Cardona & Adriana Pontón & Eduardo Sarmiento, 1998. "Evidencia Sobre Las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 002650, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Martha Misas & Rodrigo Suescún, 1993. "Funciones de demanda de dinero y el comportamiento estacional del mercado monetario," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
    7. Arturo Galindo, 1993. "Una nota sobre la relevancia del control monetario en procesos de estabilización," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
    8. Sergio Clavijo Vergara & Hernando Jose Gomez Restrepo, 1988. "Seleccion Y Control De Agregados Monetarios Optimos," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
    9. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
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    11. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    12. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Luis Fernando Melo velandia, 1999. "La Inflación Desde Una Perspectiva Monetaria : Un Modelo P* Para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 003028, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    13. Henry Ma, 1998. "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Growth in Colombia," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 98/161, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Stephen K. McNees, 1987. "Prospective nominal GNP targeting: an alternative framework for monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-9.
    15. Esteban Jadresic, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stability," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 99/61, International Monetary Fund.
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    18. Walsh, Carl E., 1993. "Central bank strategies, credibility, and independence : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 287-302, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Sergio Clavijo, . "Hacia la Multibanca en Colombia: Retos y 'Retazos' Financieros," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 150, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Hernando Vargas H., 2007. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 003630, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Hernando Vargas, . "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 431, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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