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Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility

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Author Info

  • Calvo, Guillermo
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout the program, thus resulting in a sustained real exchange rate appreciation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20486.

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Date of creation: Aug 1991
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20486

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; exchange rate policy; inflation stabilization; credibility;

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References

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  1. Feenstra, Robert C, 1985. "Anticipated Devaluations, Currency Flight, and Direct Trade Controls in a Monetary Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 386-401, June.
  2. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 91/107, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  4. Persson, Torsten & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Signalling, Wage Controls and Monetary Disinflation Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 79-97, January.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  6. Romer, David, 1990. "Staggered price setting with endogenous frequency of adjustment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 205-210, March.
  7. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  8. Edmund Phelps, 1978. "Disinflation without recession: Adaptive guideposts and monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 783-809, December.
  9. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Rocha, Roberto de Rezende, 1991. "Stabilization programs in Eastern Europe : a comparative analysis of the Polish and Yugoslav programs of 1990," Policy Research Working Paper Series 732, The World Bank.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1990. "Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy: The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 753-776, December.
  11. Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1990. "Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy," IMF Working Papers 90/110, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos
    [Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of Ex
    ," MPRA Paper 13681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Argentina," Research Department Publications 3078, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "La economía política de las políticas de cambio en Argentina," Research Department Publications 3079, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Carlos Humberto Cardona & Adriana Pontón & Eduardo Sarmiento, . "Evidencia sobre las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional," Borradores de Economia 102, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "Capital inflows to Latin America with reference to the Asian experience," MPRA Paper 13840, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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