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U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

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  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga
  • MacDonald, Stephen

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze structural changes that took place in the cotton industry in recent years and develop a statistical model that reflects the current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in 79 years. In addition, systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. This study concluded that a structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and that world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices. China’s trade and production policy also continues to be an important factor in price determination. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, changes in U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), changes in China’s net imports as a share of world consumption, selected farm policy parameters, and changes in the foreign supply of cotton.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49324.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49324

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Keywords: forecasting; cotton; price; demand; trade; structural change; farm programs.; Demand and Price Analysis; Q100; Q110; Q130;

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  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
  2. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
  3. Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2003. "Hog-Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920 1960," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(02), pages 447-488, June.
  4. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2008. "Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 391-406.
  5. Goodwin, Barry K. & Schnepf, Randall D. & Dohlman, Erik, 2001. "Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18946, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
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Cited by:
  1. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.
  2. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
  3. repec:ags:jrapmc:122314 is not listed on IDEAS

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