A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts
AbstractThis study evaluates all USDA cotton supply and demand estimates for the United States and China (including unpublished price forecasts) from 1985/86 through 2009/10 for accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal that at every stage of the forecasting cycle forecast smoothing was the most widespread and persistent type of inefficiency observed in most U.S. variables. Correlation with past errors indicated the tendency to repeat past errors in most cases. Tendency to overestimate growth was also found. Bias was uncommon and limited to several cases of overestimation of Chinaâ€™s exports and U.S. price and underestimation of Chinaâ€™s domestic use. While forecasts of Chinaâ€™s imports and endings stocks improved, U.S. price and ending stock forecast errors became larger toward the end of the study period.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Volume (Year): 37 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
cotton; forecast accuracy; forecast efficiency; forecast evaluation; forecast smoothing; USDA forecasts; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries;
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- Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen, 2009.
"U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market; Forecasting and Structural Change,"
Economic Research Report
55950, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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- MacDonald, Stephen & Isengildina-Massa, Olga, 2012. "Information Rigidity and Correcting Inefficiency in USDA’s Commodity Forecasts," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124890, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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