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Time varying country risk: an assessment of alternative modelling techniques

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Author Info

  • R. D. Brooks
  • R. W. Faff
  • M. McKenzie

Abstract

Three different techniques for the estimation of a time-varying beta are investigated: a bivariate GARCH model, the Schwert and Seguin approach, and the Kalman filter method. These approaches are applied to a set of monthly Morgan Stanley country index data over the period 1970 to 1995 and their relative performances compared. In-sample forecast tests of the performance of each of these methods for generating conditional beta suggest that the GARCH-based estimates of risk generate the lowest forecast error although these are not necessarily significantly less than those generated by the other techniques considered.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470110074837
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 249-274

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:3:p:249-274

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Related research

Keywords: Time; Country Risk; Garch; Kalman Filter;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
  2. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
  3. Coleman, Jane A. & Shaik, Saleem, 2009. "Time-Varying Estimation of Crop Insurance Program in Altering North Dakota Farm Economic Structure," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  4. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2005. "The stock market impact of German reunification: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 31-42.
  5. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.
  6. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset, 2013. "Return sign forecasts based on conditional risk: Evidence from the UK stock market index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2342-2353.
  7. Prabhath Jayasinghe & Albert K. Tsui, 2009. "Time-Varying Currency Betas : Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets," Finance Working Papers 22761, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  8. Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "Asian Sovereign Debt and Country Risk," Working Paper Series 2009-11, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
  9. Chuang, I-Yuan & Lu, Jin-Ray & Chen, Ching-Fu, 2006. "Estimating the systematic risk of airlines: A methodological comparison," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-105.
  10. Lu, Jin-Ray & Lee, Pei-Hsuan & Chuang, I-Yuan, 2011. "Estimation of oil firm's systematic risk via composite time-varying models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(11), pages 2389-2399.

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