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Time varying country risk: an assessment of alternative modelling techniques

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Author Info
R. D. Brooks
R. W. Faff
M. McKenzie

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Abstract

Three different techniques for the estimation of a time-varying beta are investigated: a bivariate GARCH model, the Schwert and Seguin approach, and the Kalman filter method. These approaches are applied to a set of monthly Morgan Stanley country index data over the period 1970 to 1995 and their relative performances compared. In-sample forecast tests of the performance of each of these methods for generating conditional beta suggest that the GARCH-based estimates of risk generate the lowest forecast error although these are not necessarily significantly less than those generated by the other techniques considered.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 249-274
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:3:p:249-274

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Related research
Keywords: Time; Country Risk; Garch; Kalman Filter;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Cheng, Joseph W, 1997. "A Switching Regression Approach to the Stationarity of Systematic and Non-systematic Risks: The Hong Kong Experience," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 45-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 101-116, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Brooks, R.D. & Faff, R.W. & Lee, J.H.H., 1994. "Beta Stability and Portfolio Formation," Papers 94-3, Melbourne - Centre in Finance.
    Other versions:
  6. McClain, Katherine T. & Humphreys, H. Brett & Boscan, Atahualpa, 1996. "Measuring risk in the mining sector with ARCH models with important observations on sample size," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 369-391, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Brooks, Robert D & Faff, Robert W & Lee, John H H, 1992. "The Form of Time Variation of Systematic Risk: Some Australian Evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 191-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Koutmos, Gregory & Lee, Unro & Theodossiu, Panayiotis, 1994. "Time-varying betas and volatility persistence in International Stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 101-112, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Sunder, Shyam, 1980. " Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-96, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1996. "Time-varying risk The case of the American computer industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 333-342, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Collins, Daniel W & Ledolter, Johannes & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Some Further Evidence on the Stochastic Properties of Systematic Risk," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 425-48, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Harvey, Campbell R. & Zhou, Guofu, 1993. "International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 107-131, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Coleman, Jane A. & Shaik, Saleem, 2009. "Time-Varying Estimation of Crop Insurance Program in Altering North Dakota Farm Economic Structure," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  2. Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "An Analysis Of Dynamic Risk In The Greater China Equity Markets," Working Paper Series 2009-5, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Robert D. Brooks & Robert W. Faff & David L. Sokulsky, 2005. "The stock market impact of German reunification: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 31-42, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Riccardo Cesari & Marzia Freo, 2003. "Analysis of european stock returns: evidence of a new risk factor," Quaderni di Dipartimento 3, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-21.

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