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Time-Varying Betas of German Stock Returns

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Author Info
Markus Ebner ()
Thorsten Neumann ()
Abstract

The market model assumes stock returns to be a linear function of the market return. However, there is considerable evidence that the beta stability assumption commonly used when estimating the market model is invalid. In this paper we account for beta instability in German stock returns by allowing the coefficients to vary over time in estimation. For time-varying beta estimation we rely on the Flexible Least Squares approach, the Random Walk Model and Moving Window Least Squares. Due to our results time-varying estimation fits the data considerably better than time-invariant estimation and, hence, increases the efficiency of beta based risk measurement. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-005-2296-5
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.

Volume (Year): 19 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 29-46
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Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:19:y:2005:i:1:p:29-46

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 101-116, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alexander, Gordon J. & Benson, P. George & Eger, Carol E., 1982. "Timing Decisions and the Behavior of Mutual Fund Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 579-602, November. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Veitch, John M., 1990. "U.S. money demand instability A flexible least squares approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 151-173, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Chauveau, T. & Maillet, B., 1998. "Flexible Least Squares Betas: The French Market Case," Papers 1998-03/fi, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
  5. Chow, Gregory C., 1984. "Random and changing coefficient models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1213-1245 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Brooks, R.D. & Faff, R.W. & Lee, J.H.H., 1994. "Beta Stability and Portfolio Formation," Papers 94-3, Melbourne - Centre in Finance.
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  7. Brooks, Robert D & Faff, Robert W & Lee, John H H, 1992. "The Form of Time Variation of Systematic Risk: Some Australian Evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 191-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Collins, Daniel W & Ledolter, Johannes & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Some Further Evidence on the Stochastic Properties of Systematic Risk," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 425-48, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Sunder, Shyam, 1980. " Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-96, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Herwartz, Helmut, 1996. "Specification of varying coefficient time series models via generalized flexible least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 261-290, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Mª Victoria Esteban González & Fernando Tusell Palmer, 2009. "Predicting Betas: Two new methods," BILTOKI 200901, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística). [Downloadable!]
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