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Demand-led versus supply-led growth transitions

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  • Kevin S. Nell

Abstract

This paper develops a saving/investment causality hypothesis to distinguish between demand- and supply-led growth transitions. The empirical application shows that India's growth transition in 1980 entailed a shift out of a suboptimal demand regime (1953-78) into an optimal demand regime (1980-2007). A key insight from the causality results is that the fiscal expansion of the 1980s initiated demand growth at the natural rate, while faster export growth in the post-1990 liberalization period relaxed the open economy solvency constraint on demand and played a crucial role in sustaining demand growth at its maximum potential rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 713-748

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Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:713-748

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=109348

Related research

Keywords: demand-led growth; India; saving/investment causality; supply-led growth;

References

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  1. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth," Studies in Economics 9821, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  2. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Income Distribution, Market Size, and Industrialization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 537-64, August.
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  6. Khaled Hussein & A. P. Thirlwall, 1999. "Explaining differences in the domestic savings ratio across countries: A panel data study," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 31-52.
  7. Jakob Madsen & Shishir Saxena & James Ang, 2008. "The Indian Growth Miracle And Endogenous Growth," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 17/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  8. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
  9. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  10. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  13. Nell, Kevin S. & Santos, Luis Delfim, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis versus the long-run solvency constraint model: A critical assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 66-70, January.
  14. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  15. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Competing Views Of The Money Supply Process: Theory And Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 67-88, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Kevin S. Nell, 2013. "A Total Factor Productivity-Capital Accumulation Hypothesis of India’s Growth Transitions," CEF.UP Working Papers 1313, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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