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How safe are the safe haven assets?

Author

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  • Kateryna Anatoliyevna Kopyl

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • John Byong-Tek Lee

    (University of Auckland)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine which of the assets commonly believed to be safe havens do, in fact, protect investors during periods of severe financial instability. Using a broad dataset of 32 assets over the period of 1964–2014, we examine the relationship of these assets with the US equity market during financial crises to determine which of them are safe havens for US investors, hedges, or speculations. We find that the US Treasuries and Japanese yen are the strongest safe haven investments in months characterized by large declines in market value or excessive volatility. We also document that the recent global financial crisis had significantly negative ramifications on the safe haven properties of many of these assets. Our out-of-sample analyses show that while, in general, predictive market exposures are negatively correlated with asset returns in strong market downturns, those of even the strongest safe haven assets are often statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Kateryna Anatoliyevna Kopyl & John Byong-Tek Lee, 2016. "How safe are the safe haven assets?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(4), pages 453-482, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:30:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11408-016-0277-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-016-0277-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    7. Çepni, Oğguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Time-varying risk aversion and the predictability of bond premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    8. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Subramaniam, Sowmya, 2021. "Time-varying risk aversion and forecastability of the US term structure of interest rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Zulfiqar Ali Imran & Muhammad Ahad, 2022. "Safe-haven investments against stock returns in Pakistan: a role of real estate, gold, oil and US dollar," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 167-189, February.
    10. Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Variants of consumption‐wealth ratios and predictability of U.S. government bond risk premia," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 661-674, June.
    11. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Movements in international bond markets: The role of oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 47-58.
    12. Bouri, Elie & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Gold, platinum and the predictability of bond risk premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    13. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kweku Kyei & Sowmya Subramaniam, 2020. "High-Frequency Movements of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the United States: The Role of Oil Market Uncertainty," Working Papers 202085, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Guney, I. Ethem & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "The role of an aligned investor sentiment index in predicting bond risk premia of the U.S," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Belma Öztürkkal & Aslı Togan-Eğrican, 2020. "Art investment: hedging or safe haven through financial crises," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(3), pages 481-529, September.
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Azimli, Asil, 2022. "Degree and structure of return dependence among commodities, energy stocks and international equity markets during the post-COVID-19 period," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Kaczmarek, Tomasz & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Grobelny, Przemysław & Perez, Katarzyna, 2022. "False Safe Haven Assets: Evidence From the Target Volatility Strategy Based on Recurrent Neural Network," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Gupta, Rangan & Subramaniam, Sowmya & Bouri, Elie & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Infectious disease-related uncertainty and the safe-haven characteristic of US treasury securities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-298.
    20. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Variants of Consumption-Wealth Ratios and Predictability of U.S. Government Bond Risk Premia: Old is still Gold," Working Papers 201912, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    21. Imran, Zulfiqar Ali & Ahad, Muhammad, 2021. "Safe Haven or Hedge: Diversification Abilities of Asset Classes in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 107613, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 May 2021.
    22. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Frequency dependence between oil futures and international stock markets and the role of gold, bonds, and uncertainty indices: Evidence from partial and multivariate wavelet approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Safe haven assets; Global financial crisis; Return correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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