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The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?

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Author Info

  • Dennis Coates

    ()
    (University of Maryland, Baltimore County)

  • Babatunde Oguntimein

    ()
    (University of Maryland, Baltimore County)

Abstract

This paper uses data on players drafted in 1987 through 1989 covering both their collegiate and their professional careers. This time period is chosen because we wanted recent players whose playing days have ended. Our analysis evaluates the role of college productivity on draft position and the relationship between college career productivity, measured by individual performance statistics and as productivity indexes, with professional career productivity measured similarly and with the length of the career. At issue is the effectiveness of NBA executives in identifying college players who will be successful in the pros. The results suggest that some college productivity significantly influences draft position and that the nature of that influence differs with the nature of the college conference from which a player is taken. Draft position also affects the length of a player’s career, with earlier draftees having longer careers.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Fitness Information Technology in its journal International Journal of Sport Finance.

Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 4-26

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Handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:5:y:2010:i:1:p:4-26

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Related research

Keywords: NBA; draft; production; rationality;

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References

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  1. Camerer, Colin F. & Weber, Roberto A., 1998. "The Econometrics and Behavioral Economics of Escalation of Commitment: A Re-examination of Staw and Hoang's NBA Data," Working Papers 1043, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  2. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H.O. & Coburn, Jason & Rankins, Timothy, 2010. "Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 589-605, July.
  3. Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
  4. Peter Groothuis & Richard Hill & Timothy Perri, 2004. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft: The Influence of Unraveling, Human Capital and Option Value," Working Papers 04-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2005.
  5. David J. Berri & Stacey L. Brook & Martin B. Schmidt, 2007. "Does One Simply Need to Score to Score?," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 2(4), pages 190-205, November.
  6. Peter A. Groothuis & Richard Hill & Timothy Perri, 2007. "The Dilemma of Choosing Talent: Michael Jordans are Hard to Find," Working Papers 07-01, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  7. Stephen J. Spurr, 2000. "The Baseball Draft: A Study of the Ability to Find Talent," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(1), pages 66-85, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Borland, Jeff & Lee, Leng & Macdonald, Robert D., 2011. "Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 371-380, June.
  2. Ryan M. Rodenberg & Jun Woo Kim, 2011. "Precocity and labor market outcomes: Evidence from professional basketball," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2185-2190.
  3. Casey Ichniowski & Anne E. Preston, 2012. "Does March Madness Lead to Irrational Exuberance in the NBA Draft? High-Value Employee Selection Decisions and Decision-Making Bias," NBER Working Papers 17928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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