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Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game

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Author Info

  • Bryan L. Boulier

    (Department of Economics The George Washington University)

  • Herman O. Stekler

    ()
    (Department of Economics The George Washington University)

  • Jason Coburn

    (Department of Economics The George Washington University)

  • Timothy Rankins

    (Department of Economics The George Washington University)

Abstract

Recruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, especially in competitive sports where the success of teams depends upon the quality of players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who will be the most successful quarterbacks and wide receivers. Our data base is constructed from the NFL drafts between 1974 and 2005. We use a variety of measures to determine the success of the players selected in those drafts. We conclude that, although their ability to rank the future performance of players is less than perfect, football executives are very successful in evaluating the talent of athletes. There was no evidence that teams that selected Awell@ also had competitive success.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2009-003.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2009-003.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2009-003

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Related research

Keywords: sports forecasts; personnel forecasts; National Football League; sports economics;

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References

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  1. Scott E. Atkinson & Linda R. Stanley & John Tschirhart, 1988. "Revenue Sharing as an Incentive in an Agency Problem: An example from the National Football League," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(1), pages 27-43, Spring.
  2. Gramm, Cynthia L & Schnell, John F, 1994. "Difficult Choices: Crossing the Picket Line during the 1987 National Football League Strike," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(1), pages 41-73, January.
  3. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, April.
  4. Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
  5. Stephen J. Spurr, 2000. "The Baseball Draft: A Study of the Ability to Find Talent," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(1), pages 66-85, February.
  6. Michael Conlin, 2002. "Reputation in Bargaining: National Football League Contract Negotiations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 241-259, April.
  7. Cade Massey & Richard Thaler, 2005. "Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 11270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2008. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," Working Papers 0806, International Association of Sports Economists & North American Association of Sports Economists.
  2. Böheim, René & Lackner, Mario, 2012. "Returns to education in professional football," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 326-328.

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