Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game
AbstractRecruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, especially in competitive sports where the success of teams depends upon the quality of players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who will be the most successful quarterbacks and wide receivers. Our data base is constructed from the NFL drafts between 1974 and 2005. We use a variety of measures to determine the success of the players selected in those drafts. We conclude that, although their ability to rank the future performance of players is less than perfect, football executives are very successful in evaluating the talent of athletes. There was no evidence that teams that selected Awell@ also had competitive success.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2009-003.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Monroe Hall #340, 2115 G Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052
Phone: (202) 994-6150
Fax: (202) 994-6147
Web page: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm
More information through EDIRC
sports forecasts; personnel forecasts; National Football League; sports economics;
Other versions of this item:
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H.O. & Coburn, Jason & Rankins, Timothy, 2010. "Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 589-605, July.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen J. Spurr, 2000. "The Baseball Draft: A Study of the Ability to Find Talent," Journal of Sports Economics, , , vol. 1(1), pages 66-85, February.
- Cade Massey & Richard Thaler, 2005. "Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 11270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Conlin, 2002. "Reputation in Bargaining: National Football League Contract Negotiations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 241-259, April.
- Gramm, Cynthia L & Schnell, John F, 1994. "Difficult Choices: Crossing the Picket Line during the 1987 National Football League Strike," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(1), pages 41-73, January.
- Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
- Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
- Scott E. Atkinson & Linda R. Stanley & John Tschirhart, 1988. "Revenue Sharing as an Incentive in an Agency Problem: An example from the National Football League," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(1), pages 27-43, Spring.
- Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2010.
"The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?,"
International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology,
Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(1), pages 4-26, February.
- Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2008. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," Working Papers, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists 0806, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
- Böheim, René & Lackner, Mario, 2011.
"Returns to Education in Professional Football,"
IZA Discussion Papers
5665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- René Böheim & Mario Lackner, 2011. "Returns to Education in Professional Football," Economics working papers, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria 2011-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tara M. Sinclair).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.