Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game
AbstractRecruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, especially in competitive sports where the success of teams depends upon the quality of players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who will be the most successful quarterbacks and wide receivers. Our data base is constructed from the NFL drafts between 1974 and 2005. We use a variety of measures to determine the success of the players selected in those drafts. We conclude that, although their ability to rank the future performance of players is less than perfect, football executives are very successful in evaluating the talent of athletes. There was no evidence that teams that selected Awell@ also had competitive success.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2009-003.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
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sports forecasts; personnel forecasts; National Football League; sports economics;
Other versions of this item:
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H.O. & Coburn, Jason & Rankins, Timothy, 2010. "Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 589-605, July.
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