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Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft

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Author Info

  • Wallace Hendricks

    (University of Illinois)

  • Lawrence DeBrock

    (University of Illinois)

  • Roger Koenker

    (University of Illinois)

Abstract

In this article, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the hiring process. We show the connection between models of statistical discrimination where uncertainty can work against groups that have less reliable indicators of future productivity and models of option value where uncertainty about future productivity can be beneficial for these groups. These models generate hypotheses about the relationship between ex ante hiring patterns and ex post productivity. This is applied to the market for NFL football players. We provide various estimates of NFL success, which suggest that statistical discrimination and option value influence choices in this market.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Labor Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 857-886

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:21:y:2003:i:4:p:857-886

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Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JOLE/

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Cited by:
  1. Maarten Vendrik & Christiane Schwieren, 2010. "Identification, screening and stereotyping in labour market discrimination," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 99(2), pages 141-171, March.
  2. Bryan L. Boulier & Herman O. Stekler & Jason Coburn & Timothy Rankins, 2009. "Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game," Working Papers 2009-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  3. R Simmons & D Berri, 2007. "Does it pay to specialize? The story from the Gridiron," Working Papers 591134, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  4. Borghesi, Richard, 2008. "Allocation of scarce resources: Insight from the NFL salary cap," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 536-550.
  5. Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2008. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," Working Papers 0806, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
  6. Blasco, Sylvie & Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara, 2013. "Employment policies, hiring practices and firm performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 12-24.
  7. Tainsky, Scott & Mills, Brian & Winfree, Jason A., 2012. "Further Examination of Potential Discrimination Among MLB Umpires," MPRA Paper 43234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Kevin G. Quinn & Melissa Geier & Anne Berkovitz, 2007. "Passing on Success? Productivity Outcomes for Quarterbacks Chosen in the 1999-2004 National Football League Player Entry Drafts," IASE Conference Papers 0711, International Association of Sports Economists.
  9. Kuhnen, Camelia M. & Oyer, Paul, 2012. "Exploration for human capital: Theory and evidence from the MBA labor market," MPRA Paper 39411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Paul Oyer & Scott Schaefer, 2010. "Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives," NBER Working Papers 15977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Julianne Treme & Samuel K. Allen, 2009. "Widely Received: Payoffs to Player Attributes in the NFL," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1631-1643.
  12. Borland, Jeff & Lee, Leng & Macdonald, Robert D., 2011. "Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 371-380, June.

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