Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft
AbstractIn this article, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the hiring process. We show the connection between models of statistical discrimination where uncertainty can work against groups that have less reliable indicators of future productivity and models of option value where uncertainty about future productivity can be beneficial for these groups. These models generate hypotheses about the relationship between ex ante hiring patterns and ex post productivity. This is applied to the market for NFL football players. We provide various estimates of NFL success, which suggest that statistical discrimination and option value influence choices in this market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Labor Economics.
Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JOLE/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- R Simmons & D Berri, 2007. "Does it pay to specialize? The story from the Gridiron," Working Papers 591134, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Bryan L. Boulier & Herman O. Stekler & Jason Coburn & Timothy Rankins, 2009.
"Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game,"
2009-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H.O. & Coburn, Jason & Rankins, Timothy, 2010. "Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 589-605, July.
- Vendrik,Maarten C.M. & Schwieren,Christiane, 2005. "Identification, screening and stereotyping in labor market discrimination," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Tainsky, Scott & Mills, Brian & Winfree, Jason A., 2012. "Further Examination of Potential Discrimination Among MLB Umpires," MPRA Paper 43234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Oyer, Paul & Schaefer, Scott, 2011.
"Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives,"
Handbook of Labor Economics,
- Blasco, Sylvie & Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara, 2012.
"Employment Policies, Hiring Practices and Firm Performance,"
IZA Discussion Papers
7013, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Blasco, Sylvie & Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara, 2013. "Employment policies, hiring practices and firm performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 12-24.
- Sylvie Blasco & Barbara Pertold-Gebicka, 2012. "Employment Policies, Hiring Practices and Firm Performance," Working Papers 2012-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2008.
"The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?,"
0806, International Association of Sports Economists & North American Association of Sports Economists.
- Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2010. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(1), pages 4-26, February.
- Borland, Jeff & Lee, Leng & Macdonald, Robert D., 2011. "Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 371-380, June.
- Borghesi, Richard, 2008. "Allocation of scarce resources: Insight from the NFL salary cap," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 536-550.
- Julianne Treme & Samuel K. Allen, 2009. "Widely Received: Payoffs to Player Attributes in the NFL," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1631-1643.
- Kevin G. Quinn & Melissa Geier & Anne Berkovitz, 2007. "Passing on Success? Productivity Outcomes for Quarterbacks Chosen in the 1999-2004 National Football League Player Entry Drafts," IASE Conference Papers 0711, International Association of Sports Economists.
- Kuhnen, Camelia M. & Oyer, Paul, 2012. "Exploration for human capital: Theory and evidence from the MBA labor market," MPRA Paper 39411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journals Division).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.