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The Dilemma of Choosing Talent: Michael Jordans are Hard to Find

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Author Info
Peter A. Groothuis
Richard Hill
Timothy Perri

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Abstract

This paper explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987-2003. We find that there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found they are usually identified early, however, more false positive exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results suggest that the dilemma of choosing talent is not so much a winner’s curse but more like a purchase of a lottery ticket. Most times you lose but if you are going to win you must buy one.

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File URL: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp0701.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number 07-01.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:07-01

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pepall, Lynne M & Richards, Daniel J, 2001. "Reach for the Stars: A Strategic Bidding Game," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(272), pages 489-504, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter Groothuis & Richard Hill & Timothy Perri, 2004. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft: The Influence of Unraveling, Human Capital and Option Value," Working Papers 04-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-58, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenn Ariga & Giorgio Brunello & Roki Iwahashi & Lorenzo Rocco, 2008. "The Stairways to Heaven: A Model of Career Choice in Sports and Games, with an Application to Chess," KIER Working Papers 646, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2008. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," Working Papers 0806, International Association of Sports Economists. [Downloadable!]
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