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Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL

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Author Info

  • Borland, Jeff
  • Lee, Leng
  • Macdonald, Robert D.

Abstract

This study investigates escalation effects in the Australian Football League (AFL). We use a sample of players selected in the AFL player draft (National Draft) between 1986 and 2002, and test for escalation effects by examining whether a player's draft order affects his subsequent utilisation by the club to which he was drafted. Utilisation is represented with measures of games played and tenure. Limited evidence of an escalation effect is found. Any relation between a player's draft order and his games played and tenure at the club to which he was drafted is concentrated in the early years of his career, and this apparent relation can be explained by the information about a player's ability that is contained in the player's draft order and by incentives for clubs to provide greater playing experience to higher ability players. Escalation effects in the AFL competition are therefore much weaker than have been found in studies of the US National Basketball Association (NBA). It is suggested that differences in the structure of the competitions may explain why the escalation effect in the AFL would be weaker than in the NBA.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Labour Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 371-380

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Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:371-380

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco

Related research

Keywords: Escalation effect Sunk cost Player draft Career concerns Australian rules football;

References

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  1. Camerer, Colin F. & Weber, Roberto A., 1998. "The Econometrics and Behavioral Economics of Escalation of Commitment: A Re-examination of Staw and Hoang's NBA Data," Working Papers 1043, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  2. Stephen J. Spurr, 2000. "The Baseball Draft: A Study of the Ability to Find Talent," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(1), pages 66-85, February.
  3. Berg, Joyce E. & Dickhaut, John W. & Kanodia, Chandra, 2009. "The role of information asymmetry in escalation phenomena: Empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 135-147, February.
  4. Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2010. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(1), pages 4-26, February.
  5. Daniel Friedman & Kai Pommerenke & Rajan Lukose & Garret Milam & Bernardo A. Huberman, 2004. "Searching for the Sunk Cost Fallacy," Experimental 0407007, EconWPA.
  6. Thaler, Richard, 1980. "Toward a positive theory of consumer choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-60, March.
  7. Peter A. Groothuis & J. Richard Hill, 2004. "Exit Discrimination in the NBA: A Duration Analysis of Career Length," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 341-349, April.
  8. Boot, Arnoud W A, 1992. " Why Hang on to Losers? Divestitures and Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1401-23, September.
  9. Heather Mitchell & Constantino Stavros & Mark F. Stewart, 2011. "Does the Australian Football League Draft Undervalue Indigenous Australian Footballers?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 36-54, February.
  10. Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
  11. R. Preston Mcafee & Hugo M. Mialon & Sue H. Mialon, 2010. "Do Sunk Costs Matter?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(2), pages 323-336, 04.
  12. Myeong-Hyeon Cho & Mark A. Cohen, 1997. "The economic causes and consequences of corporate divestiture," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 367-374.
  13. Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Pedro Robalo & Rei S. Sayag, 2012. "Information at a Cost: A Lab Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-143/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Pedro Robalo & Rei S. Sayag, 2012. "Information at a Cost: A Lab Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-143/VII, Tinbergen Institute.

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